Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Maidens can match up just fine in 2-year-old stakes races.

Background:

Maidens scored victories in juvenile stakes this past weekend no less than 4 times – the Florida Sire Stakes Susan’s Girl at Gulfstream, the Arlington-Washington Lassie and Woodbine’s duo of the Simcoe and Muskoka. Because the uncertain class of inexperienced horses and the races they exit, many horseplayers will back a 2-year-old maiden in stakes company with confidence. But was what we saw this past weekend the norm or the exception?

Data Points:

I dialed up the Betmix database to look at all North American 2-year-old stakes races since 2013 and the performances of the maidens entered in those. The study compared maidens to those with 1,2 or 3 prior victories in both win percentage and return on investment. I also looked at those same horses in direct comparison for those well-backed at 5-1 or less with expectation to perform well. For a fuller picture, I also looked at 2-year-old maiden stakes performances at various distances and surfaces to see if there are any better or worse scenarios.



Maiden 2-year-old stakes starters have a 7.7% win rate and a $0.70 ROI for every $1 bet.
Previous 1-time winning 2-year-old stakes starters have a 12.5% win rate and a $0.75 ROI for every $1 bet.
Previous 2-time winning 2-year-old stakes starters have a 18.2% win rate and a $0.75 ROI for every $1 bet.
Previous 3-time winning 2-year-old stakes starters have a 21.2% win rate and a $0.49 ROI for every $1 bet.



Maiden 2-year-old stakes starters 5-1 or less odds have a 24.6% win rate and a $0.80 ROI for every $1 bet.
Previous 1-time winning 2-year-old stakes starters 5-1 or less odds have a 27.2% win rate and a $0.83 ROI for every $1 bet.
Previous 2-time winning 2-year-old stakes starters 5-1 or less odds have a 29.6% win rate and a $0.79 ROI for every $1 bet.
Previous 3-time winning 2-year-old stakes starters 5-1 or less odds have a 31.9% win rate and a $0.67 ROI for every $1 bet.



At 5-1/2 furlongs or less on dirt, Maiden 2-year-old stakes starters have an 8.2% win rate and a $0.59 ROI for every $1 bet.
At 6 furlongs on dirt, Maiden 2-year-old stakes starters have a 6.4% win rate and a $0.77 ROI for every $1 bet.
At 6-1/2 or 7 furlongs on dirt, Maiden 2-year-old stakes starters have a 7.5% win rate and a $0.61 ROI for every $1 bet.
At 1 mile or longer on dirt, Maiden 2-year-old stakes starters have a 6.2% win rate and a $0.54 ROI for every $1 bet.
At less than 1 mile on turf, Maiden 2-year-old stakes starters have an 11.7% win rate and a $1.25 ROI for every $1 bet.
At 1 more or more on turf, Maiden 2-year-old stakes starters have a 10.1% win rate and a $0.74 ROI for every $1 bet.

Overall Findings:

Maidens have the least likely win percentage in stakes races when compared to horses with 1,2 or 3 previous victories, and the second-lowest ROI among those four categories. When looking at well-backed horses 5-1 or less, the maidens again have the lowest win percentage, but the ROI improves significantly to second-best only to 1-time previous winners. The shorter-distance races were more productive for maidens in stakes races, both on dirt and turf. Turf sprints were easily the best place to bet 2-year-old maidens in stakes, including the highest win rate and far and away the best ROI – a whopping 25% profit.

Bottom line:

What we saw this past weekend was an anomaly in terms of success of 2-year-old stakes maidens, but there are situations and individuals that certainly warrant consideration. They’re by no means an automatic toss.

Additional Details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, which trainers have had success with 2-year-old maidens in stakes races? New Mexico-based Todd Fincher has won a national-best 28 such races since 2013 (20% strike rate) – no other trainer has more than 14.