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Jeff Siegel: Saratoga Picks & Analysis | Sunday, September 5

by Jeff Siegel

September 5, 2021

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

RACE 1: Post: 12:35 ET Grade: A-
Single: 7-Hope Over Fear

Forecast: Hope Over Fear was sent long on the lawn in her first career outing and wasn’t quite fit enough to get the trip, as she established the pace but weakened close home to wind up fourth in a race that we suspect will do her a world of good. The daughter of Cupid backs up to seven furlongs, switches to the main track, catches a below par field for the level and has trained superbly since her debut to indicate a significant forward move is highly likely. At 4-1 on the morning line, the W. Mott-trained filly is a strong win play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 2: Post: 1:10 ET Grade: B-
Use: 5-Madam Maclean; 6-Little Dutch Girl

Forecast: This restricted (nw-2) $40,000 claiming turf sprint for fillies and mares has several possibilities but we’ll try to survive and advance using just two. Madam Maclean shows up in a seller for the first time and in this easier assignment could get back on the winning track. Sparingly raced, she earned a career top speed figure when a close seventh (beaten two lengths) over this course and distance last month when facing a much stronger first-level allowance field, and if she can run back to that race against this group the P. Reynolds-trained daughter of Maclean’s Music may be hard to beat. Little Dutch Girl was third in a similar affair under these conditions last month, rallying outside and finishing with interest to be beaten just a length while improving her Beyer speed figure by 13 points. With another forward move today, the C. Clement-trained filly will be right there.

RACE 3: Post: 1:43 ET Grade: X
Single: 7-Coalition Building

Forecast: Coalition Building is hard to trust, no matter how dominant she may appear in this soft maiden $40,000 claiming turf router for older fillies and mares. She’s been beaten as the favorite in five straight races and her numbers have stagnated, yet this is the cheapest she’s ever run for and the competition is so modest that she’s sure to be a short price yet again. We’ll put her on top by default but if there ever was a race to completely avoid, this is it.

RACE 4: Post: 2:16 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-Spin a Yarn; 5-Lady Traveler

Forecast: Spin A Yarn, a winner of seven of nine career starts and making her first start since a facile score at Finger Lakes in June, tackles open company today and gets Lasix for the first time. Her impressive resume notwithstanding, the daughter of Forty Tales isn’t particularly fast on speed figures so this tougher assignment on the Big Circuit vs. open company surely will test her. From the rail she has only one way to go and that’s on the front end for as long as she can stay there. Lady Traveler, the 5/2 morning line favorite, has been freshened since mid-May when she cut out the fractions before weakening late in the nine-furlong Black-Eyed Susan S.-G2 at Pimlico. She can sprint, too, but most likely will be doing her best work from off the pace. The D. Romans-trained filly also has worked like she’s plenty fit. We’ll give Spin a Yarn a very slight edge on top but use both in our rolling exotics.

RACE 5: Post: 2:47 ET Grade: C+
Use: 1-Milestone Payment/1aParty Line Vote; 5-Imwaytoocoolforyou; 8-Thisladyis the Law

Forecast: Maiden $40,000 claiming older fillies and mares sprint on grass in an open fray requiring a spread in rolling exotic play. Milestone Payment shows up in a seller for the first time after flashing speed but weakening to be third in a dirt sprint at Monmouth Park last month. This is a group she should be able to outrun from start to finish. Her entry mate, Party Line Vote, cost $180,000 as a weanling but is debuting for a tag, so clearly her connections aren’t high on her, but the barn does have a spectacular record with first-time starters (26% with a huge ROI) so she may provide a little insurance to those inclined to zero in on the 7/5 morning line favorite. Imwaytoocoolforyou, another invader from Monmouth Park, finished third in her last pair while showing good speed and then weakening late. Her last two races were washed off the grass; maybe today she’ll finally get a chance to show what she can do on the sod. Thisladyis the Law, a $30,000 L. Rice claim at Belmont Park in early July, shows a bullet five furlong workout (1:01.1b) last week to indicate she’s fit for her return, and she does have a grass sprint number (her first race) that makes her reasonably dangerous.

RACE 6: Post: 3:22 ET Grade: C+
Use: 5-Actuary; 8-Clever Fellow; 10-Risk Manager; 11-Carribbean Gold

Forecast: Here’s a messy middle distance turf event with a full field featuring restricted (nw-2) $40,000 older claimers. Risk Manager drops below his claim level in his second start after being haltered by D. Gargan, who plays the claiming game very aggressively and may have this Lookin At Luck colt well-spotted for a major effort. Sixth but beaten just over two lengths in a tougher starter’s allowance even when victimized by an unfavorable race flow, the lightly-raced 3-year-old has rising speed figures and an easy breeze since raced. With a decent early pace and room to rally when called upon, he could spring a minor surprise at 5-1 on the morning line. Clever Fellow just won a maiden $40,000 event over this course and distance in decent style while earning a number that makes him competitive right back. The I. Ortiz, Jr.,/C. Brown team always has to be respected so if this gelding improves just a little bit he’ll be right there. Caribbean Gold wired a maiden $40,000 field in late July, quickly establishing the pace and then proving uncatchable while earning a career top mark. It would seem that he’s a need-the-lead type, so front-running tactics surely will be employed again in a race that may not have all that much early speed in it. Actuary drops into a claimer, shortens from a mini-marathon and has as right to improve in just his third start since being imported from Ireland. If he can be competitive on this circuit, this would be a good place to show it.

RACE 7: Post: 3:53 ET Grade: X
Single: 2-Classy Edition

Forecast: Classy Edition is listed as the 9/5 morning line favorite in the New York-bred juvenile sprint for fillies. Based on the way she’s trained the daughter of Classic Empire will go off a lot shorter than that. Purchase for $550,00 at the Timonium 2-year-old in training sale in May, the half sister to the multiple New York-bred stakes winner Newly Minted breezed a furlong in :10 flat during the preview session and looked spectacular in doing so, and her local works since joining the main T. Pletcher string have been equally impressive. She should put on an exhibition as an obvious short-priced rolling exotic single.

RACE 8: Post: 4:27 ET Grade: B+
Single: 3-Jester Calls Nojoy

Forecast: Jester Calls Nojoy was extremely well-meant in her debut but came up a tad short when worn down close home while more than four lengths clear of the rest. Her speed figure came up pretty good, so with that race behind her the daughter of Maclean’s Music should be fitter and tougher today in this seven furlong maiden special weight sprint for juvenile fillies. The newcomers seem ordinary so let’s make this T. Pletcher a win play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 9: Post: 5:01 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-Command Point; 2-Baseline Drive; 10-Claddagh’s Run

Forecast>: This starter’s allowance turf miler for fillies and mares contains several committed front-running types, so the early pace figures to be fast and contested and the closers should have every chance from the quarter pole home. Chicago invader Command Point, now in the G. Weaver barn, is lightly-raced and improving, most recently finishing a solid third in a first-level allowance turf miler that produced a career top speed figure. She picks up I. Ortiz, Jr. and could tag the speed at a decent price with good racing luck. Baseline Drive, a Gulfstream Park invader making her first start since mid-June, is another with numbers that put her in the thick of things. She can settle somewhere in the second flight and then kick home when set down. Claddagh’s Run is listed at 20-1 on the morning line and seems better than that. Fifth vs. similar following a three month vacation, the “other” G. Weaver-trained mare has been first or second in eight of 13 career outings and has the proper late-running style that should be complimented by the projected race flow. With good racing luck she should be heard from in the final furlong.

RACE 10: Post: 6:13 ET Grade: B
Use: 2-Mystic Night; 8-First Constitution; 9-Superfecto

Forecast: First Constitution, a Grade-1 winner of three of four starts in his native Chile, makes his U.S. debut in this second-level allowance nine furlong main track event following a series of good works that should have him fit enough. Bred on southern hemisphere time and therefore not quite actually four years old, the son of Constitution recently worked stride-for-stride with Happy Saver while displaying good early speed, so we suspect he’ll be forwardly placed throughout and have every chance to make his mark in his first start since last December. I. Ortiz, Jr. picks up the call on the T. Pletcher-trained colt, who is listed at 5-1 on the morning line and may be a gamble at that price. Mystic Night, freshened since May, is quite strong in the speed figure department, though he’s been sparingly raced with just three well-spaced appearances in 2021. Recent works indicate he’s fit, so he must be considered a major player. Superfecto makes this third start in his current form cycle, and it should be his best effort. With rising numbers and good pace-forcing style, the R. Nicks-trained colt switches to L. Saez and is a “must use” in rolling exotic play.

RACE 11: Post: 6:11 ET Grade: B
Use: 2-Girl With a Dream; 3-Echo Zulu; 5-Pretty Birdie

Forecast: This year’s Spinaway S.-G1 is a legit race for a Grade One, with several highly-talented fillies stretching out to seven furlongs for the first time. Echo Zulu earned a giant speed figure in her debut in mid-July when easily disposing of maidens by more than five lengths while drawing away with complete authority in the final furlong. The daughter of Gun Runner should get nothing but better as the distances increase, and recent workouts indicate she’s better now than she was prior to her first start. Pretty Birdie is unbeaten in two starts and already is graded stakes winner, having captured the Schuylerville S.-G3 over the Saratoga main track in gate-to-wire fashion in mid-July. She’s probably the best of the speed types but should be under pressure most of the way. The good news is that her pedigree suggests she should easily handle more distance. Girl With a Dream graduated at first asking at Ellis Park in July while drawing away late as much best. She’s pretty fast on numbers, though well short of the best figure earned by Echo Zulu. The daughter of Practical Joke should be ideally suited for this extended sprint trip, so at 6-1 on the morning line she’s worth including in your exotics.

RACE 12: Post: 6:46 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Veterans Beach; 4-Dr. Blute; 6-King Angelo

Forecast: The nightcap is a turf sprint New York-bred first-level allowance older horses. Veterans Beach, freshened since mid-June and a prior turf sprint winner at Saratoga, lands the rail, gets I. Ortiz, Jr., and shows a steady series of local drills that should have him fit to fire a big shot off the bench. The son of Big Brown has only started three times in the past 20 months but remains protected in a sign of confidence from trainer C. Clement after earning a career top speed figure when second in a similar affair at Belmont Park last time out. King Angelo looked pretty good breaking his maiden vs. state-bred foes here last month while earning a number that makes him a major player right back. L. Saez will have him on or near the lead throughout. Dr. Blute, a close third at this level over this course and distance last month, has gradually rising speed figures but still needs another bit of improvement to defeat a field off this quality. The Not This Time gelding should be doing his best work late.