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The Red Mile Pick 5 Analysis

by Al Cimaglia

September 19, 2021

This afternoon The Red Mile has eight $250,000 stakes scheduled as two-and-three-olds will be taking part in the Kentucky Championship Series Finals. The 0.50 Pick 5 starts in Race 2, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 2

3-Pebble Beach (4/5)-Winner in 5 of 6 has had his way with this kind with the only loss coming to Caviart Camden and that was by a neck in a 148.3 losing effort. TMac has options, could beat this field taking control early on or could come off a helmet as in last. Looks like a winner with a decent trip and has an explosive brush.

Race 3

1-Cuatro De Julio (4-1)-Competitive colt has been in the money in 16 of 22 lifetime starts. Seems to be always in the hunt down the lane unless buried with a bad post or makes a break. Trotted home in 54.1 with a snappy 26.1 last quarter to take a picture versus 4 from this field on 9-7. Will look for another big effort at a fair price.
7-Venerate (3-1)-Julie Miller trainee had issues this year but has looked more like herself in the last 2 races. One of these starts Andy Miller may leave but has a shot either way. There is speed on the inside and the fractions could be lively, so best to not overlook. Trotted the 2nd half in 54.2 in last, to lose to the one above by only a nose.

Race 4

1-Lady Chaos (7/2)-Races better near the top of the stack and in the last 2 the post draws haven't been too kind. Might get overlooked at the windows and Dave Miller should have in play as soon as the wings fold. Needs the right trip and has a good chance of getting one.
2-Empressive Hill (3-1)-This is probably the fastest trotter in the field has won 5 of 7 in 2021. But does throw a few steps in every now and then, which was the case in her last race. Went off at 1/2 that day and was in against most of this field, so the 3-1 morning line seems generous.
5-Beltassima (9/5)-Beat #3 at an 8-1 price and led from gate to wire in last. Has been tagged today as the 9/5 program chalk and has hit the board in 7 of 10 at Lex with 5 pictures. Should be a main player.

Race 5

4-Thebeachiscalling (2-1)-There was no beating #6 on 9-12 as she cruised home in 147.1 and was 7 lengths better than this filly who finished 2nd. But if the odds-on choice doesn't have her fast ball this gal has faced top competition out East. My guess is Dunn will be closer to the lead turning for home in her 2nd start at the Red Mile.
6-Blue Diamond Eyes (1-1)-Looked like a jet plane before takeoff in last and anything close to that effort will be enough for the top check. But that sizzling mile was only 6 days ago and much faster than any effort this year.

Race 6

1-Goldie Legacy (7/5)-Cullipher pupil has been razor sharp in the last 5 races and is looking for the 3rd straight picture. Wins by being on the point and Gingras will be out and winging to protect the rail.
2-Komodo Beach (3-1)-Pelling trainee has been a bridesmaid in the last 2 starts and gets a chance for some revenge over #1. Using instead of the morning line chalk #4 who is only 1-7 at Lex and recent form has been dull. This son of Somebeachsomewhere could get a pocket ride and then roll by #1 down the lane as was the case on 8-22.

0.50 Pick 5

Total Bet=$12

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