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Al Cimaglia: Little Brown Jug Analysis | Thursday, September 23

by Al Cimaglia

September 23, 2021

The Little Brown Jug Final rolls in the finale, Race 20 and the Eliminations are carded as Race 16 and Race 17. The top four finishers in each Elimination return for the Final. Handicapping elimination races are always a challenge but especially so when they happen on the same card as the final. The track was sloppy on Wednesday and the weather may not fully cooperate today.

Race 15-Ohio Breeders Championship-Purse $132,667

1-Gulf Shores (7/5)-This colt is 5 for 5 and looks a cut above the rest. Has done well on an off-track if that is the case and doesn't have to lead every step of the way to win. Most likely will be bet down off the morning line and looks like a winner with a decent trip.
5-Tre Cruz (8-1)-With this post draw Brett Miller could have this Yankee Cruiser 2-year-old in play. Should be there at the wire and if #1 has a sub-par performance it could be picture time. Also, has a 1-1 record on an off-track.
6-Sling Shock (6-1)-Team Noble pupil likes to win, has taken 4 pictures in 7 starts. Could be on the point early in the mile and if Noble can steal a quarter the stage could be set for an upset at a nice price.

Race 16-1st Brown Jug Elimination-Purse $132,360

2-Lou's Pearlman (2-1)-Burke trainee has been razor sharp winning the last 3 starts and it would be no surprise if the streak continued here. Gingras has gate speed to use and is the one to beat.
5-Whichwaytothebeach (3-1)-Competed well in the last 2 up at Mohawk versus tough foes and should relish the return to a smaller oval. AMac is reunited with this Pelling trainee and that won't hurt. Does have enough gate speed to be forwardly placed in the pocket behind #2.
1-Borntobeshameless (9/2)-Not sure if starting from the rail helps but will respect Team Noble. This 3-year-old was a late bloomer and had a fine sophomore season. Should be in the mix for qualifying if minds manners.
4-Mysweetboymax (6-1)-Max has hit the board in 9 of 14 starts but has taken only 1 picture. Merriman could keep him in striking range and has a chance to hit the bottom of the ticket and qualify. Has faced some tough competition on smaller ovals.

Race 17-2nd Brown Jug Elimination-Purse $132,360

6-Perfect Sting (2-1)-The question is will Miller blasts out to take control. If so, he could wire this field, but this is the more difficult of the 2 eliminations. Getting a prime post draw for the Final matters but what is more important is to have enough left in the tank. So, Miller may see how the start plays out before trying for the lead.
3-I'll Drink To That (4-1)-Tetrick hasn't had success at the Fair in the biggest races, but he did win the Jugette for the first time yesterday. Miller will stick with Perfect Sting for the Final and Tetrick could have an opportunity for another first. This Ryder trainee comes off a 2-race win streak and this could be a big day for the son of American Ideal.
1-Rockyroad Hanover (7/2)-Dunn should keep this Alagna trainee in play and has a good chance to qualify. But needs the right trip to win so would rather use underneath.
2-American Courage (6-1)-Recent form has been so-so but this colt might wake up on the half-mile track. Could be a gimmick possibility here and if draws well might make some noise in the Final at a price.

$8 Pick 3-Races 15-16-17
Total Bet=$32

0.50 Pick 3-Races 15-16-17
Total Bet=$12

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