by Jeremy Plonk
September 27, 2021
Hastings Park in Vancouver has a mandatory payout on its massive $560,737 carryover pick five wager this evening. While it may not be a track you bet often, that kind of player advantage with the carryover money going into all payoffs tonight make it a worthwhile pursuit.
Hastings Park // Race 4 // 8:09 pm ET // claiming // 1-1/16 miles
Jeremy’s Notes: Three-turn route on the bullring in which many of these have been facing one another in recent starts. Ex-stakes runner Pitch Count has lost 13 straight (3 in a row at this level since dropping, all at 3-1 or less), but probably will be solidly backed again. Second morning line choice Ace Deuce has lost 12 in a row, including 8 straight for this condition in single-digit odds. If either beats you, so be it. My play is to spread and avoid those underlays.
Jeremy’s Horses to Include: 9,8,2,3,5
1/ST BET Artificial Intelligence Win Projections: 1 (29%), 7 (11%), 8 (11%), 5 (9%)
Hastings Park // Race 5 // 8:37 pm ET // maiden claiming // 6-1/2 furlongs
Jeremy’s Notes: Six-horse maiden claimer is where many will try to narrow the ticket based on field size. Jack Don’t Drink (3-1), Keepingthedream (2-1) and Commander B (5-1) are a combined 0-50 lifetime. Avoiding that trio at short prices, and the first-time starter Bellaroo for low-percentage connections, leaves only a pair. Let’s try to get by with those.
Jeremy’s Horses to Include: 6,4
1/ST BET Artificial Intelligence Win Projections: 1 (32%), 3 (27%), 6 (14%), 4 (10%)
Hastings Park // Race 6 // 9:05 pm ET // claiming // 1-1/16 miles
Jeremy’s Notes: Not Yet and Aditya ran 1-2 in late August and have 21 victories between them in this open-conditioned claiming route. Consistent at any distance, Quagmire is 15 for 25 in the exacta lifetime. This looks to be a very solid trio in a field of 8 pre-scratches.
Jeremy’s Horses to Include: 6,4,5
1/ST BET Artificial Intelligence Win Projections: 6 (24%), 5 (18%), 4 (15%), 2 (12%)
Hastings Park // Race 7 // 9:33 pm ET // claiming // 6-1/2 furlongs
Jeremy’s Notes: Sanawar fits the conditions of this race beautifully with a win Aug. 17 and a solid third since. He’ll be the late threat in a race where top contenders Bluegrass Angus and The All Button will be battling up front.
Strong connections at meet team with Sanawar and the pace scenario looks ideal. At 9-2 morning line, would be a gutsy single to knock off the favorites
Jeremy’s Horses to Include: 1 if singling; potentially add 6,2
1/ST BET Artificial Intelligence Win Projections: 2 (27%), 3 (19%), 6 (16%), 7 (11%), 1 (10%)
Hastings Park // Race 8 // 10:01 pm ET // claiming // 1-1/16 miles
Jeremy’s Notes: This non-winners of 2 lifetime claimer is overrun by horses who broke their maidens for the basement $4,000 level. Pineapple Tidbits won for the $25,000 maiden claiming price, while Walkinthepark scored for the $16,000 level. Those victories stand out and both are dropping significantly in claiming price tonight. Trust the class over the 3-turn trip.
Jeremy’s Horses to Include: 2,6
1/ST BET Artificial Intelligence Win Projections: 6, (23%), 2 (18%), 8 (14%), 5 (11%)
Jeremy’s Suggested Tickets
Smaller Budget: 9,8,2,3,5 with 6,4 with 6,4,5 with 1 with 2,6 = $12 for $.20 ticket
Bigger Budget: 9,8,2,3,5 with 6,4 with 6,4,5 with 1,6,2 with 2,6 = $36 for $.20 ticket