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Al Cimaglia: Woodbine Mohawk Park Early Pick 5 Analysis | Monday, October 4

by Al Cimaglia

October 4, 2021

Tonight, the headliners on the 12-race Woodbine Mohawk card are 2 and 3-year-olds battling in Ontario Sires Stakes Gold action. The 0.20 Pick 5 begins in Race 1. The sequence has a $100,000 guaranteed pool, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 1

4-GP Dreamin (9/2)-Has been racing well and could benefit from a 2-hole trip behind #5. At the very least should be a gimmick possibility and a win could add some juice to the Pick 5 payout.
7-Memo (5/2)-McNair should leave and probably only has to tackle the one above to claim the point. That's the usual game plan and fits well with this crew but hasn't sealed the deal in a long time. Went off at 7/5 in last and seeing similar here.
8-Dream Nation (3-1)-Got the top early in the mile but faded versus better. This is a more comfortable spot and could beat this group coming off a helmet.

Race 2

1-Dabra Day (4/5)-Odds-on choice should be bet down off the morning line. Has the look of a winner unless a break happens. But will bank on Roy being able to keep the young filly on a path to the winner's circle.

Race 3

1-T C Scandal (6-1)-Gets post relief, a new set of hands in McNair and should offer a solid price. Looking for an alert start and to be in the hunt at the wire.
5-Celia Bayama (9/2)-Back in town and back in the Moreau barn with Filion steering. That's a nice combo plus should enjoy the company. Has hit the board in 6 of 9 here with 1 picture and best to not overlook.
8-Tuggingoncredit (3-1)-Needs the right trip from this post but the last line was better than it looks. McClure should be leaving and can land on top or in an up-close seat. Looking for a big try and could take its 7th picture in 25 Wbsb starts.
10-Hallsglensmavis (5/2)-Likes to finish 2nd as that happened 9 times this season and 5 in a row until winning the last start. That score was the 1st race for the Barrington barn since being claimed. Will offer a better price from this post and does figure to be in the mix but it won't be as easy to land on the point this time.

Race 4

6-Timestorm (7/2)-Drops, 2nd time Lasix and looking for only the 3rd win this year plus the Auciello barn has been cold. So, there are some cross currents but should be forwardly placed and can be there at the wire.
7-Darkangeldesbois F (15-1)-Has been on the shelf since 8-15 but did have 2 nice qualifiers here at the end of September. Makes its Mohawk debut, Roy will be steering and looks like a play at long odds.
10-HP Royal Theo (3-1)-Raced well versus better and now makes a meaningful drop. The 0-10 record this year is an issue but can top this group and the post helps the price.

Race 5

7-Spicey P (8-1)-McNair returns, he has had success in the past and should leave to be forwardly placed. Getting on the engine without using much gas could be the ticket to a picture. Might get the jump on the field and be tough to catch.
10-Take A Gamble (3-1)-Comes off a couple of quick miles and will likely be bet off those lines despite the post draw. Can handle this crew with a sharp steer, rolled the back half in 54.3 in last.

My Ticket

Race 1) 4,7,8

Race 2) 1

Race 3) 1,5,8,10

Race 4) 6,7,10

Race 5) 7,10

Total Ticket Cost) $14.40 for $0.20

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