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Jeff Siegel: Del Mar Picks & Betting Strategy | Wednesday, November 3

by Jeff Siegel

November 3, 2021

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily “Workout Report, Analysis, and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Grade Descriptions:

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 4-Starship Chewbacca; 5-Honorary Degree

Forecast: We’re flying blind as to how the quirky Del Mar main track will be playing on opening day of the fall season, so the best advice is to go to school during the early races of today’s program and try to identify whatever track bias might exist. In the opener, Starship Chewbacca has been facing much quicker types since his maiden $50,000 win back in March. Finally, he’s realistically spotted in this restricted (nw-2) $16,000 sprint and should be able to take full advantage of the opportunity. Based on our pace projection he should be on or near the lead throughout. Honorary Degree switches to A. Cedillo and is another that charts as a strong pace contender. He’s a fit on speed figures and won for fun over this main track three races back. We’ll try to get by using just these two in rolling exotic play.

RACE 2: Post: 1:03 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Liam’s Dove; 5-Sparkle Blue

Forecast: Liam’s Dove won the Juvenile Fillies Turf as a maiden over this course and distance and then got burned up pressing suicidal splits from a disadvantageous outside post in the Surfer Girl S. at Santa Anita last month. This first-level allowance event offers a considerably easier pace scenario, so we’re expecting the P. Miller-trained filly to regain her winning form. The switch to F. Prat doesn’t hurt, either. Eastern shipper Sparkle Blue is the 9/5 morning line favorite and represents the best of the closing types. She ran a bit better than the line will show when fourth in the Selima S. at Laurel five weeks ago and arrives fresh off the plane for G. Motion with speed figures that fit and room for plenty of further improvement. We’ll give ‘Dove a very slight edge on top but include both in our rolling exotics.

RACE 3: Post: 1:34 PT Grade: C+
Single: 10-Dadstar

Forecast: Maiden claiming juveniles sprint five and one-half furlongs in the first leg of the Pick-6. It’s a borderline inscrutable affair, but rather than spread deeply (which might be an option for bigger players) we’ll take a stand and hope to be right. Dadstar received a bit of action in his debut (6-1) at Los Alamitos in late September in a similar affair and flashed good speed from the rail to the turn, whereupon he took up sharply, lost his action while racing greenly, and quickly fell out of it. Today, the M. Puype-trained gelding lands the cozy outside post, adds blinkers, retains J. Hernandez, and shows a steady series of workouts since raced. If he can run – and we’re not entirely convinced he can - this would be a good spot to show it. A relatively short price 4-1 on the morning line because the competition is so weak, we can make him a win play and rolling exotic single, or better yet simply pass the race.

RACE 4: Post: 2:04 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Anitanewmercedes; 7-Wilder than Most

Forecast: Wilder than Most has improving speed figures, exits a hot race, and was a clever winner over this course and distance during the summer meeting. The lightly-raced son of Vronsky retains F. Prat and projects to enjoy a comfortable second flight, stalking trip and then have every chance from the quarter pole home. Anitanewmercedes is an intriguing Bay Area shipper with numbers that fit and an impressive career resume seven wins from 19 career outings. A tad more comfortable on grass than synthetic, the son of Haynesfield does his best work as the controlling speed and from where he’s drawn he’s like to inherit that type of trip.

RACE 5: Post: 2:34 PT Grade: C+
Use: 5-Active Account; 6-Next Revolt; 8-Charge Cash

Forecast: Here’s a messy affair offering a field of class droppers, distance switchers, layoff runners and a pace scenario that looks muddled and unpredictable. Anything goes. Charge Cash is 3-year-old tackling older but looks capable of making the lead without having to be used hard, so if he can shake loose early he might get brave late. His form over the Del Mar main track is hardly inspiring (four starts, one third) but he shows a bullet work over the Santa Anita training track since his last race and there’s no panicky class drop so let’s assume he’s in good enough shape for D. O’Neill to fire his best shot. He’s 7/2 on the morning line; in a race like this we wouldn’t be thrilled with anything lower. The “other” O’Neill entrant, Active Account, has a reasonable look as well. The Clubhouse Ride gelding exits a tougher starter’s allowance turf miler, and a return to his winning form two races back sprinting over the local main track certainly is possible. He has a good stalking style that should fit the race flow and with just four career starts has room for improvement that some of the others might not have. R. Santana Jr. almost certainly will put him in the race early. Next Revolt is reunited with “win rider” F. Prat and, like Active Account shows the always-dangerous route-to-sprint angle for a barn that has superior stats with that angle. He’s just 2-for-18 during his career but one of those wins was accomplished over the Del Mar main track and he did finish first at this level two races back but was disqualified.

RACE 6: Post: 3:06 PT Grade: B+
Use: 3-Nazuna; 5-Carpe Fortuna

Forecast: The two major players listed above in this first-level allowance turf miler restricted to 3-year-old fillies are pretty solid and we’re expecting the winner to be one or the other. The New York invader from C. Brown’s barn, Nazuna, is a first-time Lasix user exiting a pair of infinitely tougher races after being imported from England, where she was multiple group stakes placed, and anything close to her European form against this field should be more than good enough. With F. Prat taking the call, she’s the logical 8/5 morning line favorite and may even a bit lower. Carpe Luna doesn’t quite have the resume of our top pick but she’s genuine and consistent at this level and shows speed figures that are rising with each start. With a prior win over the local lawn and good stalking that ensures a clean trip, the P. Eurton-trained daughter of Carpe Diem seems certain to fire another big shot stretching out again and finishing an excellent second in the down-the-hill Unzip Me S. last month at Santa Anita.

RACE 7: Post: 3:40 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Moonlight d’Oro; 6-Livingmybestlife

Forecast: Moonlight d’Oro is the class of the field and more than good enough to win this restricted main track stakes for fillies and mares in her first start in 10 month layoff but we’re not convinced she’s 100% ready based on what we’ve seen of her in the morning. Fact is, she needed a couple of outings last year before being fit enough to break her maiden and then win the Las Virgenes S.-G2 in a race that stamped her as one of the better prospects in her division. Unfortunately, she suffered an injury and had to be stopped on, and while she may be rusty off the bench it’s possible that her pure talent will be enough to carry her through. Livingmybestlife is clearly the controlling speed on paper, and while she may be suspect at this one mile distance she’ll have every chance to wire the field in her first try around two turns. Her pedigree says sprints only, but her numbers are strong, and she continues to impress in the a.m., so we’ll respect her enough to include her on our ticket.

Notable Workouts:

Moonlight d’Oro (October 21, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:13h). Grade: B | VIDEO
Solo main track work on the comeback trail for R. Mandella, mostly on her own to the top of the stretch before being asked and ridden through the lane, splits of :24 flat, :35.3, :47.4 and 1:13 flat, doing her best to the end. Previous works weren’t impressive, this one was better, but strikes us as one that might need some racing before she’s totally cranked up. Was a Grade-3 winner earlier this year and has the pedigree to improve with maturity and distance.

Livingmybestlife (October 11, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01h). Grade: B | VIDEO
Breezing throughout, final three furlongs in :11.3 and :36.3, strictly on her own through the lane. Hard to say if she’ll be able to stretch out if asked but she’s not a puller so a mile might be within her range.


RACE 8: Post: 4:13 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Lil Nas; 9-Hail Freedom

Forecast: Hail Freedom is drawn farther out than we’d prefer in this one mile turf event for state-bred older horses but in a lackluster affair t he D. O’Neill-trained colt appears to have finally found a field he can beat. In the frame in five of six career starts and with decent form over this course and distance during the summer season, the son of Box Score retains K. Desormeaux and projects to settle into a second flight, stalking position and then be able to wear down the leaders when the pressure is turned on. Lil Nas, away for more than a year and now in the J. Sadler barn, tries two turns off the bench following a useful series of workouts and could be a better type this time around after showing some ability as a 2-year-old in a couple of outings. He’ll race with Lasix from a comfortable inside draw while attracting F. Prat, so there are enough positive factors in his chart to warrant inclusion in our rolling exotic ticket.

Notable Workouts:

Lil Nas (October 29, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2h TT). Grade: B- | VIDEO
Solo five furlong training track drill for new trainer J. Sadler, a tad erratic through the lane while being ridden hard through the lane, final three furlongs in a strong :34.4. Away for about a year and still a bit green but has some ability and may do okay with older maiden state-bred competition.

Hail Freedom (October 27, Santa Anita, 4f, :49h). Grade: B- | VIDEO
Never asked but never changed leads, final three furlongs in :12.4 and :36.4, good energy through the lane. Has had six chances but should find a maiden state-bred field he can beat eventually.