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Frank Carulli: Stronach 5 Picks & Preview | Friday, November 12

by Frank Carulli

November 11, 2021

If you're not betting on the Stronach 5, you don't know what you're missing. Since Friday, Oct. 8, the average payout for the $1 wager is $7,618 -- not counting the $98,311 carry-over payout Oct. 22. What's more, the highest odds on any winner during that span was 12-1. Last week's $8,826 payout featured four winners at 5-2 odds or less. Here's an early look at this Friday's races, with an update to follow after scratches.


LEG A // LAUREL PARK // RACE 7 (3:40PM ET) // MAIDEN CLAIMING // 6 FURLONGS (DIRT)

C TWO improved off a 3-month rest two starts ago, then raced close-up for a half-mile in a faster-paced long sprint. MOON BIZ got caught 6-wide on the backstretch in a turf sprint, ranged up 3- and 4-wide on the turn, then flattened out in mid-stretch. He takes a magnified class drop in a field that has no seconds in 51 starts combined. SCARLET'S SONG, well-bet in three starts to begin her 5-year-old season, returns from a nine-month layoff.   


LEG B // GULFSTREAM PARK // RACE 8 (3:53PM ET) //  OPTIONAL CLAIMING // 1 MILE, 70 YARDS (ALL WEATHER)
 
PETER D looms a strong favorite in this 2-year-old optional claimer. He weaved through stretch traffic two back against winner Last Leaf (3-6, $113k), then rallied from up close to a slow pace to win a Florida-bred stakes race in his first start on the Tapeta surface. He could be a solo play, but the steadily improving EYE OF THE TEMPLE is worth using as a backup. He set a pressured pace to the sixteenth pole and just missed at 7F, then won in a photo-finish at this distance in his Tapeta debut.


LEG C // LAUREL PARK // RACE 8 (4:10PM ET) // MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT // 6 FURLONGS (DIRT)

MIDDLE ISLAND was fractious in the paddock but made a good middle move after a slow start into contention, before flattening out. ESTATE launched a rally from a ground-saving position in the same race, but raced erratically in the stretch and finished third in her debut. 


LEG D // GOLDEN GATE // RACE 2 (4:18PM ET) // MAIDEN CLAIMING // 1 MILE (ALL WEATHER)

The main contenders in this bottom-level maiden claimer drop out of the same $12,500 race won by pace-controlling favorite Bandeena, who set a pressured pace and tired for $20,000 in her previous start out of town. That being said, use QUICK TIME, who stalked the pace from mid-pack and tired late and STEIN'S GIRL, who raced evenly but rallied strongly for second in her previous two starts at this level.


LEG E // GULFSTREAM PARK // RACE 9 (4:23PM ET) // 1 MILE, 70 YARDS (ALL WEATHER)

We're going seven deep in the final leg of the Stronach 5. NEVER SAY KNOW is a deserving favorite but has raced exclusively on the turf. SOLAR TAP rallied after he was bumped and shuffled back at Delaware Park but couldn't reach the 28-1, first-out winner; stablemate ASTRAL WEEKS took some money but was no factor at Belmont for a high-percentage barn with class droppers. CALIFORNIA FROLIC just missed as the favorite in a one-mile $50,000 claimer in his second start for Joseph. OCTOBER TIME was no match for Peter D (see Leg B above) in stakes company. LUIGI'S SPIRIT is a well-bred firster for a trainer-jockey duo that is 3-7 at the current meet.


STRONACH 5 TICKET
 
Leg A: 1, 5, 7
Leg B: 1, 7
Leg C: 7, 10
Leg D: 1, 3
Leg E: 1, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 10

Cost for a $1 ticket: $168