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Al Cimaglia: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis-$25,000 Guaranteed Pool | Friday, November 26

by Al Cimaglia

November 26, 2021

Tonight, Cal Expo has a 9-race card ready to roll which includes a 0.20 Pick 4 that begins in Race 6. The sequence has a $25,000 guaranteed pool with a 16% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6

4-Northbrook Ron (6-1)-Comes off a decent Hawthorne meet and paced the back half in 56.4 in its CalX qualifier with a 27.3 last quarter. Should be forwardly placed and can be in the mix at a fair price.
5-Contemporay Legend (7/5)-Raced well in a needed start but was parked for the 2nd half of the mile and faded down the lane. Should be better tonight at a small price, and if speed isn't holding backers may not be rewarded.
6-Dislocator (5-1)-The Plested barn has been batting 44% winners and this 5-year-old came off the bench with a
a nice victory. Steps-up after getting only the 1st win in 29 starts but best to not overlook after being used hard into a quick 1st half.

Race 7

5-May Day Maggie (9/5)-Roland entry has won 11 of the last 35 starts but is a small track specialist. This will be the CalX debut and what separates this filly from the rest is not being camera shy. This is a suspect bunch and should be bet hard.
7-D Vigilante (5-1)-Will take a swing that Plano has good reason to choose this Rios entry over the 1-2-3. Has only 1 win in 23 CalX starts but finished 2nd in 7 of those races. Comes off an even effort in the 1st start since 4-24 and should be forwardly placed tonight.

Race 8

3-This Dog Wont Hunt (6/5)-This six-year-old has won 2 of 3 at CalX but has only 8 career starts. Paced the 2nd half in 56.1 to finish 3rd in a needed a start. Beaten even-money chalk does its best work racing near the top of the stack. Kennedy sticks and will probably be more aggressive from the start.
5-Believe In Dragons (9/5)-This Schneider pupil paced evenly after a 6-month hiatus and did finish the mile with a 27.2 last quarter. Plano should have the 3-year-old in striking range turning for the money and could leave to get the pocket behind the one above.

Race 9

2-Frewil Dakota Sven (5/2)-Shipped in from Kentucky and raced a big mile from post 8 to score at 1/2. Now steps-up after taking the long way around to win handily. With this post draw its best to not overlook chances for an encore.
4-He Grins Again (5-1)-Was used hard early in its CalX debut which was the 1st start in 2 months. Plano steers his own this time and should be tighter. Could surprise at a fair price if speed is holding. Was the pilot's choice over the other stable entry #6.
7-Its Pointless (2-1)-Closed the meet in April with 3 straight pictures. Came back last week and made another trip to the winner's circle. Svendsen stays loyal to Plested and steers #1, so Kennedy will be in the bike. Winner of 14 in 19 CalX starts deserves respect, so will use but hope for those above with more value.

My Ticket

Race 6) 4,5,6

Race 7) 5,7

Race 8) 3,5

Race 9) 2,4,7

Total Ticket Cost) $7.20 for $0.20

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