Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TPC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 individual
algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100 point takeout.

The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.

Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.

For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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RACE 1: Post: 12:00 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 7-Ultimate Bango; 9-Exultation; 6-Barraza; 1-Coulthard

Forecast: As this is penned, the Sunday opener is scheduled to be run down the Hill (yesterday’s Hillside races were transferred to the flat course). It’s a wide-open scramble with several possibilities; best advice is to include as many as your budget allows. Ultimate Bango (TOC=5/2; ML=8-1) appears to offer good wagering value at 8-1 on the morning line, so we’ll give the veteran gelding a slight edge on top. Most recently a fast-finishing but too-late third in the Oakland Stakes at Golden Gate Fields, the M. Glatt-trained seven-year-old has been first or second in seven of 12 career starts over the local lawn but is winless in the last two years, so he’s certainly overdue. With some help up front, he’ll be heard from late. Exultation (TOC=7-1; ML-6-1) is another that offers good value at 6-1 on the morning line. Freshened since July, the P. Eurton-trained gelding has run well over this course and distance in the past and has been given a strong foundation of training track drills to have him fit and ready. The presence of Johnny V. in the saddle certainly won’t hurt. Barraza (TOC=9/2; ML=7/2 scored handsomely in a Hillside sprint during the fall meeting and may have found his niche as a turf sprinter. He’s competitive on numbers for a barn that has excellent stats with freshened runners and goes for an off-the-charts jockey/trainer combo of K. Desormeaux and V. Cerin. Coulthard picks up F. Prat and seems to be getting sharper, according to his morning drills. We’ve always considered him to be most effective as a late-running turf sprinter.

Notable Workouts:

Coulthard (December 28, Santa Anita, 4f, :49h TT). Grade: B View Workout Video
In blinkers, breezing throughout while even but best with Bill Buckner (same time) in training track drill for P. D’Amato. Been a bit rusty in his two comeback races but seems to be getting fitter and sharper now. Most effective sprinting on grass.

Ultimate Bango (December 16, Santa Anita, 4f, :49.4h). Grade: B
View Workout Video
Half mile main track drill, splits :24.2 and :49.4, very light late coaxing. Appeared eager and maintains his form.


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RACE 2: Post: 12:32 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 10-Copper Go Ten; 1-She’s Bulletproof; 6-Madiha

Forecast: Here’s another challenging affair, this one for state-bred maiden fillies sprinting six furlongs on turf. The known element doesn’t look all that formidable so let’s take a flyer on a fresh face. Copper Bo Ten, listed at 15-1 on the morning line, is bred to be quick and should handle turf as well, and while the extreme outside draw does her no favors the C. Gaines-trained sophomore, based on a recent gate drill (see below) appears to have dangerous early speed. If she can shake loose or at worst inherit a nice stalking trip, the daughter of Grazen certainly could pull of an upset. She’s Bulletproof represents stranger danger from San Luis Rey Downs. A full-sister to the quick multiple turf sprint stakes winner Bulletproof One, she gets the rail and Johnny V. and could be quicker than her modest workout clockings indicate. Madiha adds Lasix, has the route-to-sprint angle, and exits a couple of much tougher Cal-bred stakes races, so we’re expecting improvement from this daughter of Shaman Ghost. She doesn’t really have a turf pedigree, maybe she like it, anyway.

Notable Workouts:

Copper Bo Ten (December 18, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.4hg). Grade: B-
View Workout Video
Fairly nice gate drill with Elegance Code (same time) for C. Gaines, under a nice hold throughout and able to go faster if permitted, splits of :36.3, :49.1 and 1:01.4, always traveling the easier of the two and a tad the best late. Has enough speed to worry state-bred foes and seems fit enough.


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RACE 3: Post: 1:04 PT Grade: X
Single (in order of preference): 1-Edgeway

Forecast: Edgeway (TOC=2/5; ML=Even) earned a career top speed figure when finishing an excellent second in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint-G1 last time out and did so despite racing along the deeper inside lanes most of the way. Freshened and working as well as ever, the J. Sadler-trained daughter of Competitive Edge rates the top billing over the other main player, Merneith (TOC=4-1; ML=9/5, winner of the Santa Monica S.-G2 last February but off the track since. The works are okay, and the career top 97 Beyer speed figure she earned in her last outing would make her dangerous but we’d prefer to see one first, so we’ll take a stand with Edgeway as a short-priced single.

Notable Workouts:

Edgeway (December 18, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.2h). Grade: B+
View Workout Video
Solo five furlong drill, never really asked, plenty left at the wire, final half mile in :23 flat and :47 flat. Maintains her top form.

Merneith (December 17, Santa Anita, 5f, :59h). Grade: B
View Workout Video
Much best over Spielberg (5f, 1:00h), final three furlongs in :24.2 and :37.1 on our watches so we doubt she went as fast as official clocking, mildly ridden to the wire and then asked a bit traveling out to the seven furlong pole. Decent work but not much more than that.


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RACE 4: Post: 1:35 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference: 8-Taming the Tigress; 2-That’s Amare

Forecast: Although she is winless in three career starts on grass (two seconds and a third) and failed as the favorite in her last two outings, Taming the Tigress (TOC=5/2; ML=3-1) looks very much like the one to beat in this six furlong dash for first-level allowance state-bred fillies and mares. The route-to-sprint angle should be in full effect for the daughter of Smiling Tiger, who we suspect is much more comfortable around one turn, and after being reunited with “win rider” F. Prat she should be able to produce a winning late kick. Though she loses regular F. Prat, That’s Amare (TOC=6/5; ML=3-1) is the darling of the analytics despite her lack of recent activity. Away since April but returning with a series of Los Alamitos workouts that should have her fit enough, the daughter of Unusual Heat likes to settle in the second flight and take hold late and projects to enjoy that type of trip today. These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play with a slight preference on top to Taming the Tigress.


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RACE 5: Post: 2:05 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 6-It’s a Riddle; 4-Busy Paynter; 3-Your Royal Coin

Forecast: We’ll go three deep in this $10,000 claiming sprint for older distaffers, with It’s a Riddle (TOC=9/5; ML=5/2) logically the one to beat with this return to her winning level. The B. Hess, Jr.-trained mare clearly qualifies under the horse-for-course theory (all three of her wins have come at Santa Anita) and the projected race-shape scenario should allow her to enjoy her preferred pace-prompting trip. Busy Paynter (TOC=5-1; ML=3-1), freshened since mid-October, is another that is particularly fond of the local dirt strip and will be happy to return home, having won half of her six races here but making her first local start since May of 2020. She’s the quickest in the field, and if she can shake loose early without undue pressure the D. Blacker-trained mare could get very brave. Your Royal Coil (TOC=2-1; ML-4-1) deserves a look as well. First or second in four of eight starts over the Santa Anita main oval, the Los Alamitos-based mare has been facing tougher of late and projects to be forwardly placed with dead aim throughout.

Notable Workouts:

Busy Paynter (December 18, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.2h). Grade: B-
View Workout Video
In blinkers, stride-for-stride with Issa Court (same time), final three furlongs in :36.3 while under a hold in a nice drill for a cheap type. Been away since October but seems in good shape off the layoff and should be competitive with moderate claiming fillies and mares over a main track she likes.


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RACE 6: Post: 2:35 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference: 3-Secret Club; 6-Impossible Task; 7-Ottawa Fire

Forecast: Secret Club (TOC=5/2; ML=4-1)seems as good as any in this starter’s allowance turf miler and is reasonably priced at 4-1 on the morning line. Both of his career wins were accomplished over this turf course, and having finished in the frame in each of his last four starts the son of Clubhouse Ride appears set to break through for another score. Nicely drawn towards the inside and switching to Johnny V., he’ll be doing his best work from the quarter pole home. Impossible Task (TOC=3-1; ML=6-1)earned a career top speed figure when a close third in a tougher spot on dirt at Del Mar in mid-November but the switch to grass shouldn’t be an issue, as the son of Liam’s Map has run well over this turf course in the past. He looks very much like the controlling speed and given that trip could take this field a long way. Ottawa Fire (TOC=7-1; ML=5-1) should be included on your ticket as well. He’s a first-off-the-claim for B. Hess, Jr. following a restricted (nw-2) $32,000 win at Del Mar with a number that makes him a threat right back. The fact that his new connections protect him tells us he’s doing well and ready for a forward move.


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RACE 7: Post: 3:05 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 6-Lonely On Top; 1-Midnight’s Girl; 2-Head Start; 8-Nang Singha

Forecast: Maiden $40,000 sophomore fillies sprint six furlongs in a spread race in which nothing would surprise. We’ll use four and hope that’s enough to get us through it. Lonely On Top has displayed some early speed when facing infinitely tougher foes in her first two outings and should greatly appreciate this drop into the maiden claiming ranks. Her recent workouts at San Luis Rey Downs indicate she’s doing well, so we’ll give her a very slight edge on top. Midnight’s Girl also is making the maiden-to-maiden-claiming class drop while trying conventional dirt for the first time. Against this group she should be able to put her best stuff on display. Head Start, away since the fall, has trained okay for her return and is another that should be capable of producing a forward move, while Nang Singha has shown enough in the a.m. to be tossed in as well.

Notable Workouts:

Midnight’s Girl (December 20, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.4hg). Grade: B-
View Workout Video
In company with Gold Phoenix (same time) for P. D’Amato and looked improved for a maiden claiming type, always in hand and finishing without ever being asked while even but a tad the best, splits of :24.4, :36.4, :49.1 and 1:01.4. Form isn’t much, but with a class drop the daughter of Midnight Storm could wake up. Intriguing in the right spot.

Head Start (December 10, Santa Anita, 4f, :49.2h). Grade: B-
View Workout Video
In blinkers, broke off a few lengths behind For Love Not Money (4f, :50.1h) and finished down the lane with that one, from the three furlong pole to the seven furlong pole on our watches in :24.3 and :37.2, never really asked. In good shape after being freshened since the fall and probably rates a reasonable look vs. maiden claiming sophomore fillies.

So Softly (December 20, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.4h). Grade: B-
View Workout Video
Led Princess Rahy (same time) throughout, breaking off a few lengths in front and maintain that margin to the wire, good early speed and then finishing out coaxing, splits of :23.1 and :48.4 Plenty of early speed but has suspect stamina. Seeking a modest maiden claimer.

Nang Singha (November 24, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:013hg). Grade: B-
View Workout Video
Saw her in a solo gate work last month and it wasn’t bad for a maiden-claiming type, splits of :24.3, :36.2 and :48.4 (up there) before galloping out five furlongs in 1:-01.3. Daughter of Paynter was asked only mildly down the backside and appears to have a bit of speed. Worth a look in a proper spot.


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RACE 8: Post: 3:35 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 5-Helens Welll; 6-Bellabel

Forecast: This year’s renewal of the Blue Norther S. for sophomore fillies over a mile on turf contains several question marks. Rather than spread deeply, let’s just stick with the two ‘D’Amato entrants.Helens Well (TOC=9/5; ML=5/2) always tries hard, but her lack of tactical speed is a concern. She closed well but too late when fourth beaten less than a length in the Jimmy Durante S.-G3 at Del Mar in late November and faces a similar assignment today. The good news is that the early fractions in today’s affair should be quick enough to compliment her style, so with clear sailing the Irish-bred filly may be along in time. D’Amato’s other import, Bellabel (TOC=5-1; ML=3-1)attracts F. Prat for her U.S. debut and has form overseas that puts her squarely in the hunt. She likes to settle early and blast home and Euros from this stable almost always fire big shots in their “first-off-the-plane” outings.

Notable Workouts:

Helens Well (December 18, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.3h TT). Grade: B-
View Workout Video
Stride-for-stride with Virulente (same time) in training track drill for P. D’Amato, neither one asked much, final three furlongs in :37 flat. Doesn’t really have a great turn of foot but always tries hard and holds her form.

Bellabel (December 20, Santa Anita, 4f, :50.1h TT). Grade: B-
View Workout Video
Even outside Kitty Kitana (same time) in training track breeze for P. D’Amato, final quarter mile in :24.4. Irish import arrives fit, was a useful handicapper in decent company overseas.

Shoppingforpharoah (December 18, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.3h TT). Grade: B
View Workout Video
In blinkers (scheduled to remove them in next start), ridden a bit late while finishing in full stride for Wong to record fast time on training track. Seems okay, not sure how far she wants to run.


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RACE 9: Post: 4:05 PT Grade: B+
Single: 3-American Theorem

Forecast: It took a very fast horse (Essential Wager) to deny American Theorem (TOC=4/5; ML=9/5) a win at Los Alamitos last month when the son of American Pharoah stayed on bravely before settling for second money despite earning a strong, career top speed figure. This will be his third start off a layoff, so theoretically it should be his best, and while the G. Papaprodromou-trained ridgeling has had his problems over the years, when he’s healthy he’s pretty fast. He’s stretching out to a distance we’re anticipating he can handle and we’re hoping to see him on the lead from the get-go. Let’s make this once-promising 5-year-old a rolling exotic single and a play in the win pool at or near his morning line of 9/5.


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RACE 10: Post: 4:35 PT Grade: B
Use (In order of preference): 4-Maglev; 5-Handy Dandy; 8-Boise

Forecast: The finale is a challenging renewal of the Eddie Logan S. for 3-year-olds over a mile on turf that includes the intriguing European shipper Maglev (TOC=7/2; ML=5/2) . The son of Galileo makes his U.S. debut for M. Glatt showing a recent bullet half mile training track drill (:47 3/5, fastest of 24) and Timeform ratings that are good enough to make him quite competitive in stakes company on this circuit. This will be his first try over a distance of ground, but his pedigree suggests the longer the better. Handy Dandy (TOC=6-1; ML=5-1) probably didn’t beat a whole lot when he graduated at this distance on grass at Del Mar, but he was visually impressive and strikes us as a gelding with some potential. He has a good stalking style and speed figures that make him a legit threat right back. Northern California stakes winner Boise (TOC=7-1; ML=4-1) returns to his home base in California with rising numbers and dangerous closing kick. The son of Temple City picks up F. Prat, who won a few races yesterday (six, to be exact). These are the three we’ll be including in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Maglev.

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