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Al Cimaglia: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis | Friday, March 4, 2022

by Al Cimaglia

March 4, 2022


Due to a $12,851 carryover the 0.20 Pick 5 at Cal Expo will have a guaranteed pool of $75,000. The sequence has a 16% takeout on money wagered this evening, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 1

2-Alway's Close (5-1)-Stewart can work a suck-around trip from here and this is a wide-open race. Looking for a fair price and the driver change should help.
3-Fox Valley Triton (6-1)-Raced from the rear into a .58 half last time. Lackey got the 6-year-old going and came the 2nd half in 56.1 but was too far back. Expecting Triton to be much closer to the lead this time.
5-Some Playa (8-1)-Hasn't had luck versus $5k claimers and this Plano trainee should like the company. This drop could mean go time and will use despite the 2-42 record at CalX.
6-Major Mac (2-1)-Roland could leave and try to take control. This field appears to be not as deep as in recent races. Not loving the short price but figures to be a player.
8-Outlaw Blue By You (9/2)-Doesn't have the gate speed to leave for the top so Kennedy may look to duck and come off cover. Needs the right trip plus honest fractions and all that could happen here.

Race 2

3-Western Devil (9/5)-Has hit the board in 5 of the last 8 starts while facing $5k claimers. Comes off a win, merits program favoritism and Roland returns. It would be tough to leave off the ticket.
5-Terror Of The Night (4-1)-This veteran put in an honest effort from the 8-hole last week. Now drops in for only $5k and the short field should help.
6-Dance Traveler (4-1)-Claimed by Plano last week for $5k and now drops in for $6k, so will start from post 6. The post draw should not be a hinderance but can help the price. Plano has steered before, and he represents a positive driver change.

Race 3

6-Major Al-Mar (2-1)-Drops after racing against Open company as do 3 others. Has hit the board in 15 of 27 CalX starts with 7 pictures. Should be tough to beat if this Bertrand trainee is dialed on high. Has some gate speed and Stewart should be out and rolling and may not look back.

Race 4

1-Sporty Fox (5-1)-Trip dependent mare doesn't like to win. But may have the best chance to drop into the pocket and roll by #2 down the lane.
2-Starstruck Cowgirl (2-1)-Took the long way around in last with the trainer between the pipes. Plano gets this assignment and drops to a level of previous success.

Race 5

2-Artspire (3-1)-Lands in the lowest level in quite a while. This smells like a drop and pop situation and Roland is back between the pipes.
7-Mibwest Kid (2-1)-Winner of the last 2 has been in fine form since its debut here on 12-5. Winner of 5 of 7 in 2022 has shown the ability to win from this post and it's best to not overlook.

0.20 Pick 5

Total Bet=$12

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