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Jon White: Kentucky Derby & Oaks Future Wager Pool 4 Analysis

by Jon White

March 13, 2022

If you are so inclined, you can make a bet or two or more in Pool 4 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW) this week. In addition to win and exacta future wagering being offered on the Kentucky Derby, an Oaks-Derby Future Wager linking the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby is on the betting menu.

KDFW Pool 4 wagering commences Friday (March 11) at noon ET and concludes Sunday (March 13) at 6 p.m. ET.

As usual, KDFW Pool 4 consists of 23 individual horses, plus an “all other 3-year-olds” option, which is listed at morning line odds of 6-1.

Once again there are no Baffert-trained horses among the 23 individual horses. That’s because Baffert currently is banned from entering a horse in this year’s Kentucky Derby.

The 5-1 morning-line favorite in KDFW Pool 4 is Forbidden Kingdom. Perhaps he will end up being the favorite when the pool closes Sunday, but I have my doubts. I think there are too many people at this point who question whether he can win at 1 1/4 miles for him to be the favorite. I’m thinking the favorite will be either Epicenter or Smile Happy, or maybe Simplification. Heck, if Classic Causeway wins the Tampa Bay Derby, perhaps he will turn out to be the KDFW Pool 4 favorite at the close of betting.

I will say that, in my opinion, playing Forbidden Kingdom at around 5-1 is a terrible bet. The odds are just way too low. Don’t forget, if a horse you bet on in KDFW Pool 4 does not start, you do not get a refund. For any horse under 10-1, or maybe even under 15-1, you really should wait until race day. If you bet on a horse on race day and the horse scratches, you do get a refund.

What you generally want to shop for with any future wager is taking a shot at a big payoff with a horse at a really nice price. For instance, I mentioned that I have an $80 Kentucky Derby future bet on Morello in Las Vegas at 125-1. He is just 10-1 on the morning line for KDFW Pool 4.

Also, if you are possibly going make a KDFW Pool 4 bet on Classic Causeway (15-1 morning line), Happy Boy Rocket (50-1), Major General (50-1) or Shipsational (50-1), be sure to wait until after seeing how they do in Saturday’s Tampa Bay Derby. If, for example, Happy Boy Rocket, Major General or Shipsational were to win Saturday, no doubt their final odds in KDFW Pool 4 will be much lower than the morning line price.

Prior to the close of KDFW Pool 3, I wrote: “One [Sam F.] Davis runner to especially keep an eye on, I think, is Classic Causeway, who I have ranked No. 6 on my Kentucky Derby Top 10. He is listed at a juicy 50-1 on the morning line for KDFW Pool 3. If Classic Causeway does win the Davis, no doubt his price will end up being much shorter than 50-1. But he still might be a decent enough of a price (30-1? 20-1?) to put a few bucks on him. Of course, if Classic Causeway does not win the Davis, betting him in KDFW Pool 3 really does not make much sense regardless of his price.”

Well, as it turned out, Classic Causeway did win the Davis. He wound up closing at 13-1 in KDFW Pool 3, a far cry from his 50-1 morning line.

Early Voting and Charge It, both at 30-1 on the KDFW Pool 4 morning line, look interesting to me.

This seems to be a nice price on the undefeated and untested Early Voting. Next for the Chad Brown-trained Kentucky-bred Gun Runner colt is the Wood Memorial following his victory in the Withers Stakes.

The word is trainer Todd Pletcher plans to run Charge It next in the Florida Derby. The Kentucky-bred Tapit colt won a one-mile maiden race by 8 1/2 lengths at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 12 in his second career start.

A couple of 50-1 longshots on the KDFW Pool 4 morning line that might be worth putting a few dollars on are the Brad Cox-trained Cyberknife and Zozos. These two colts both appear to have much talent. And at 50-1 or thereabouts, the price is right.

Below are the morning-line odds for Pool 4 of the 2022 KDFW:

No. Horse (Morning Line Odds)

1. Barber Road (50-1)
2. Call Me Midnight (50-1)
3. Charge It (30-1)
4. Classic Causeway (15-1)
5. Cyberknife (50-1)
6. Early Voting (30-1)
7. Emmanuel (15-1)
8. Epicenter (8-1)
9; Ethereal Road (50-1)
10. Forbidden Kingdom (5-1)
11. In Due Time (30-1)
12. Major General (50-1)
13. Mo Donegal (12-1)
14. Morello (10-1)
15. Pioneer of Medina (30-1)
16. Rattle N Roll (20-1)
17. Shipsational (50-1)
18. Simplification (12-1)
19. Smile Happy (6-1)
20. Un Ojo (50-1)
21. White Abarrio (15-1)
22. Zandon (12-1)
23. Zozos (50-1)
24. “All Other 3-Year-Olds” (6-1)


Below are the morning-line odds for what will be the only Kentucky Oaks Future Wager pool:

No. Horse (Morning Line Odds)

1. A Mo Reay (30-1)
2. Ain’t Easy (20-1)
3. Awake At Midnyte (20-1)
4. Bernabreezy (50-1)
5. Bubble Rock (30-1)
6. Classy Edition (15-1)
7. Echo Zulu (4-1)
8. Fannie and Freddie (30-1)
9. Favor (20-1)
10. Goddess of Fire (20-1)
11. Hidden Connection (50-1)
12. Ice Orchid (50-1)
13. Juju’s Map (10-1)
14. Kathleen O. (8-1)
15. Nest (8-1)
16. Nostalgic (20-1)
17. Sandstone (15-1)
18. Secret Oath (6-1)
19. Shahama (30-1)
20. Turnerloose (15-1)
21. Venti Valentine (15-1)
22. Veterans Highway (50-1)
23. Yuugirl (50-1)
24. “All Other 3-Year-Old Fillies” (10-1)