Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TOC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100-point takeout.

The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.

Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.

For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 1-Stotland; 3-Ko Samui

Forecast: Stotland (TOC=2-1; ML=5/2) took full advantage of a realistic class drop to produce a confidence building win (and a career top figure) despite a less-than-ideal trip in a maiden $50,000 event over this course and distance last month. It was his first start as a 3-year-old and just his third outing overall, so the R. Hess, Jr.-trained gelding has plenty of room for further improvement. Additionally, the son of Mucho Macho Man switches to F. Prat, lands the coveted rail, and is guaranteed an ideal ground-saving trip. Ko Samui (TOC=Evens; ML=2-1) sprung an 18-1 surprise when graduating at this trip over the local lawn in his second start since being imported from Europe and not much more will be needed for the Irish-bred gelding to repeat in this starter optional claimer. He earned the same 68 Beyer speed figure that was assigned to Stotland in his win, so they’re tough to separate. Both should be included in rolling exotic play, with a very slight edge on top to Stotland.


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RACE 2: Post: 1:33 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 4-Mo Connelly

Forecast: Bottom-rung maiden claiming fillies and mares meet over a mile on the main track, with Mo Connelly having plenty in her favor and therefore deserving of top billing. Stretching out for the first time, getting a big break in the weights with the switch to good bug boy D. Herrera, and with speed figures that are better than par for the level, the S. Miyadi-trained filly projects as the controlling speed in a race with suspect closers. Two nice recent workouts indicate she’s doing well and ready to step forward, with the main (only?) concern being her history of self-caused trouble, specifically her difficulties breaking from the gate. Let’s hope that in her fifth career start she will have finally figured out how to leave with her field.

Notable Workouts:

Mo Connelly (March 3, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.4h). Grade: B-
Asked a bit through the lane and did okay for a cheap type, final three furlongs in :11.3 and :36.4. Lightly-raced filly has room for some improvement.
View Workout Video


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RACE 3: Post: 2:06 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 7-Flint Stroll; 2-Settecento

Forecast: Final Stroll shows up in a seller for the first time and should greatly appreciate the class relief in this maiden $50,000 nine furlong grass event for older horses. The son of Fllintshire shows rising speed figures with each outing, but as a four-year-old his upside is limited, hence the realistic class drop in his first start since mid-January. Trainer P. D’Amato remains red hot, has good stats with both the layoff and the maiden-to-maiden-claiming angles, and appears to have found a proper spot for this gelding. Settecento is worth including somewhere on your ticket as well. Third over a mile on dirt at this level in his second lifetime outing earlier this meeting, the son of Congrats produced a speed figure 16 points better than his debut, so with another forward move today he should be competitive with our top pick.

Notable Workouts:

Flint Stroll (March 12, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:03h TT). Grade: B
In blinkers, broke off about four lengths in front of Doitforandrew (5f, 1:02.1h TT), was engaged by that one at the head of the and then finished down the lane in sharp style (both under a nice hold), while coming the final quarter mile in :24 and small change. In good shape, certainly should improve with a class drop.
View Workout Video


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RACE 4: Post: 2:42 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference: 5-Tiz a Master; 1-Mucha Woman

Forecast: Tiz a Master (TOC=4/5; ML=8/5) was claimed back by hot trainer V. Cerin last time out – always a good sign – and after getting tagged in a photo in her last two starts the veteran mare is due to return to winning form in this $25,000 claiming dirt sprint. Reunited with “win rider” J. Hernandez, the daughter of Ministers Wild Cat can be tough on the lead or from a stalking position, and her reliability – she’s been first or second in nine of 20 starts – makes her the one to beat. Mucha Woman (TOC=2-1; ML=8-1) has faced tougher foes in each of her last four starts (hitting the board twice) and her runner-up effort the last time she performed at this level during the fall season charts well in this spot. She’s well-liked by the analytics, and If she can avoid trouble from the rail, the D. O’Neill-trained filly could give ‘Master a run for her money. We’re expecting the winner to be one or the other and will use both in our rolling exotics, with the main push going to Tiz a Master.


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RACE 5: Post: 3:16 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 4-Hollywoodhellraisr; 1-Carpe Bellum

Forecast: Here’s a split of the third race and also should pretty much boil down to two main players. Hollywoodhellraisr is a nine-race maiden and certainly not one to trust, having produced a modest third place performance as the 3/5 favorite when dropped to this level for the first time out last month. He didn’t get the clearest of runs and probably should have finished closer, but he’s always been a one-paced grinder while lacking punch when it is needed the most. That said, the P. D’Amato-trained gelding owns a significant speed figure edge over chief rival Carpe Bellum, though that B. Koriner-trained sophomore has much more room for improvement. The son of Carpe Diem shows the two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern, lands the preferred rail draw, adds blinkers for the first time and makes the always-important class drop from maiden special weight to maiden claiming. Under these conditions, he seems certain to produce a forward move, but based on speed figures he’ll have to.


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RACE 6: Post: 3:46 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 2-Everlys Girl

Forecast: State-bred older fillies and mares sprint six furlongs in the first leg of the late Pick-4, with money-burning Bold Choice certain to receive plenty of strong support again despite having failed as the favorite in her last three starts, including a no-excuse runner-up effort at 1/5 two runs back. Her speed figures continue to drop, so there is no evidence that she’s getting any better and several indicators that she is not, so, include her if you’d like in rolling exotic play, but we’ll look elsewhere. Everlys Girl finished a well-beaten fourth in her second career start but exits a monster race and actually earned a respectable speed figure despite winding up 12 lengths behind impressive debut winner Ganadora. She was slow leaving the gate in both of her starts but today adds blinkers and may inherit the role as the controlling speed with any type of decent break, so given the projected race flow we’ll make her a win play and rolling exotic single.


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RACE 7: Post: 4:16 PT Grade: B
Single: 6-Pistachio Princess

Forecast: This restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claiming turf sprint for fillies and mares offers another opportunity for a single. Pistachio Princess (TOC=5/2; ML=8/5), claimed in her last pair and now in the S. Miyadi barn, shows the route-to-sprint angle for her new connections and should greatly appreciate the turn back in trip. Her only career win was accomplished in a sprint, and in a field that is glaringly lacking in front-running types this daughter of Vronsky could clear her rivals soon after the start and dominate to the wire. The switch to leading rider F. Prat won’t hurt, though the change in jockey certainly will attract money. If it’s not her, it could be anybody, so rather than spread the race, let’s take a stand and make her a win play and rolling exotic single.


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RACE 8: Post: 4:46 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 5-Speed Boat; 1-Awesome Charge

Forecast: This is the fifth maiden race on today’s card, a $20,000 main track sprint for older horses. The second-times starter Speed Boat displayed pace-pressing speed before gradually weakening late to wind up third in a much tougher maiden $40,000 affair last month in a race that produced a relatively good Beyer figure. He’s probably the best of the speed types, and in a field lacking in effective closers the B. Koriner-trained gelding looks like a logical gate-to-wire candidate. Awesome Charge was claimed for $50,000 a year ago at Oaklawn Park in his second career start by J. Sadler and finally makes it back to the races in a bottom-rung affair, not exactly a sign of confidence. The good news is the Will Take Charge colt attracts F. Prat, but as a colt based on his two previous outings with no early speed, his rail post position is somewhat problematic. As for the others, Bob Daniels and Head for Business project to be on his flank throughout but neither has shown any desire to dig down deep and finish when the pressure is turned on, so let’s toss them out.

Notable Workouts:

Awesome Charge (March 10, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02h). Grade: C+
Was ridden through the lane inside Rocky Gibraltar (same time, not asked much) for J. Sadler, final half mile in :23.4 and :49.3, fair to moderate while getting fit following a year-long layoff. Probably will return cheap after being claimed for $50,000 at Oaklawn Park in his last start.
View Workout Video


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RACE 9: Post: 5:16 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 1-Smuggler’s Run; 5-Doitforandrew; 2-Echosmith; 3-Bochombo

Forecast: The finale is a highly-competitive grass sprint for sophomores. Smuggler’s Run (TOC=Evens; ML=9/5) is fresh from a state-bred first-level allowance win over this course and distance in a performance that produced a vastly improved speed figure, and today he tackles open company from a good rail draw and with F. Prat staying aboard. Based strictly on numbers, the sophomore gelding looks like the right horse, but it may not be as simple as that. Doitforandrew (TOC=10-1; ML=5/2) was victimized by a troubled trip in his U.S. debut over a distance of ground in the Pasadena S. and today adds Lasix, drops back to a sprint, and shows up in a first-level allowance event. The English-bred gelding retains U. Rispoli for high-percentage trainer P. D’Amato, so we’re expecting a huge amount of improvement, certainly enough to make him a major player. Similarly, Echosmith, (TOC=15-1; ML=8-1) who actually finished ahead of Doitforandrew when sixth in the Pasadena, seems likely to step forward as well, especially as a first-time Lasix user adding blinkers and getting a weight break with the switch to bug boy D. Herrera. It’ll be interesting to see if this Irish-bred gelding will display more early speed under these conditions. You should also find room on your ticket for the intriguing comebacker Bochombo, (TOC=12-1; ML=5-1) a maiden two-year-old sprint winner here last spring and with a steady but unspectacular recent series of workouts at San Luis Rey Downs. As a son of Street Boss, he should enjoy the grass and could be dangerous if he returns as well as he left.

Notable Workouts:

Doitforandrew (March 12, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.1h TT). Grade: B
Broke off a few lengths behind Flint Stroll (5f, 1:03h TT) and finished down the lane with that one while pulling pretty good under a hold, slow early but strong late, splits of :26.1, :38.2 and 1:02.1 for P. D’Amato. Didn’t get much of a run in Pasadena S. in his U.S. debut but may improve if shortened to a sprint.
View Workout Video


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