Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TOC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100-point takeout.

The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.

Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.

For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 1-Cotopaxi; 6-Motorious

Forecast: The opener is a first-level allowance turf sprint over the flat course that offers two major layers. Cotopaxi (TOC=7/5; ML=5/2) has won his last pair over the local lawn with authority and today’s moves up in class while with a reasonable chance at a three-peat. He offers inside speed in a field without a whole lot of zip, so if he breaks running from the rail the D. O’Neill-trained colt should be on or near the lead throughout. His numbers aren’t quite par for the level, but in a field where a couple of the class droppers appear out of form, he may not need to improve at all. Motorious (TOC=6-1; ML=9/5 is an intriguing English invader from the P. D’Amato barn. Both of his wins overseas were accomplished on synthetic (he’s zero-for-five on grass) and the local work tab is solid if not unspectacular, but the stable has superior stats with Euro-shippers so we suspect this 4-year-old gelding is fit and ready. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with perhaps a very slight edge on top to Cotopaxi.


Notable Workouts:

Caisson (March 14, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01h). Grade: C+
In blinkers, in company inside Karin With an I (6f, 1:13.4h, out to 7/8 pole) for R. Mandella and showed good speed from the half mile pole to hit the top in :23 flat but then emptied out through the lane while being ridden, up at the wire in :49 flat for the final half mile. Maybe needs grass or perhaps needs to race himself in shape after being away since November of 2020. Let’s see one first.
View Workout Video

Motorious (March 19, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.1h TT). Grade: B
In blinkers, finished a neck behind Overdue (5f, 1:01.1h TT) and couple of lengths in front of Gregorian Chant (5f, 1:01.2h TT) while under very light coaxing throughout the lane, final three furlongs in team training track drill for P. D’Amato in :12.1 and :35.4, solid move. Was winless in five starts on grass overseas but showed useful form on the synthetic. Has first level allowance conditions available for his U.S. debut and should be live and well-meant.
View Workout Video



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RACE 2: Post: 1:32 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 1-High Connection; 2-Pioneering Papa

Forecast: High Connection brought $290,000 at the OBS March Sale last year and finally makes it to the post after showing plenty of speed at the preview session (:10 flat) and then doing the same in his recent workouts that include a bullet :59 3/5 gate drill nine days ago (see below) that should have him fit and ready. From the rail at this extended sprint trip, the son of Connect won’t have an easy task, but if he leaves with his field, the B. Baffert-trained sophomore should have every chance to score at first asking. Pioneering Papa, a distant but decent third in a fast, highly-rated race in his debut earlier this month, should produce a forward move with that bit of experience behind him and based on speed figures is easily the best of the known element. In a six-runner affair, these are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play, with perhaps a slight edge on top to High Connection.

Notable Workouts:

High Connection (March 17, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.3hg). Grade: B+
Excellent gate work for B. Baffert while much best over Blue Devil (4f, :49.3hg), splits of :35 flat, :47 flat and :59.3 on our watches, mostly on his own while displaying good speed and athleticism and finishing with something left. Was a $290,000 OBS March Sale purchase last year (breezed in :10 flat) and looks the part of a very good prospect despite the length of time it’s taken for him to make the races. Looks plenty fit.
View Workout Video

Devil Moon (March 12, Santa Anita, 4f, :47.1h). Grade: B
Worked outside Set Sail (same time) for R. Mandella and was a half-length behind at the wire, under a nice hold early and then very light coaxing late (workmate was under a stout hold and was clearly best), final three furlongs in :11.2 and :35.1. Ran below expectations ins debut, probably will improve, but may need a bit more experience before putting his best stuff on display.
View Workout Video


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RACE 3: Post: 2:04 PT Grade: B
Single: 1-Youteyourhonor

Forecast: Youteyourhonor (TOC=6/5; ML=3-1) has turf sprint numbers that quite frankly are below average for the level, but she is stretching out for the first time, lands the good rail, and projects to be the controlling speed in this grass miler for sophomore state-bred fillies. Her pedigree suggests she should handle the trip, so let’s hope she can get loose on the lead and roll all the way to the wire. As we always say, speed types have their best chance to get the distance in their first try, so let’s take a stand and make this daughter of Danzing Candy a win play and rolling exotic single.


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RACE 4: Post: 2:36 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference: 4-Coalinga Road; 2-Thirsty Always

Forecast: Coalinga Road (TOC=4/5; ML=8/5) owns a considerable edge in speed figures and will be hard to beat if he returns as well as he left, but the C. Gaines-trained gelding, off the track for nearly a year, strikes us as a type that may need a race or two before being dead fit. Against this group, though, he may not have to be. The son of Quality Road, in the frame in all three of his prior outings over the Santa Anita main track, may find this abbreviated sprint distance a tad sharp but we suspect he’ll find a way to get up in time. For protection, we’ll also include Thirsty Always, (TOC=4-1; ML=7/2) a two-time stakes winner last year but from a low percentage outfit and with two poor recent races that put his current condition into question. One of those races was around two turns and the other was on grass, so perhaps under these more ideal conditions he’ll bounce back. Both should be included in rolling exotic play in a race that we’ll otherwise not get too involved with.

Notable Workouts:

Coalinga Road (March 11, Santa Anita, 4f, :47.1hg). Grade: B
Was hustled from the gate before being taken in hand after the opening furlong, then was asked pretty good entering the far turn to the quarter pole while even but a tad the best with Minister Shane (same time) for C. Gaines, splits of :24.1, :35.3 and :47.2 on our watches, okay work, nothing great. Been away for 11 months, getting cranked up (recorded a bullet work seven days later in :59.2 that should contribute to his fitness). Might be the type that needs to race himself into shape but should be competitive in state-bred first-level allowance company.
View Workout Video


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RACE 5: Post: 3:08 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 1-Touchdown Brown; 4-If Id Told You; 8-Discretionary Day

Forecast: This state-bred middle distance turf event is a challenging affair that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Touchdown Brown (TOC=7/2; ML=5/2) exits a pair of tougher races, has steadily rising speed figures, and is guaranteed a ground-saving trip from his rail draw. With the switch to Johnny V., the B. Koriner-trained gelding should appreciate this class drop from stakes company to a first-level allowance event, and while he finished fourth in his only prior outing on grass, it wasn’t a bad try over a sprint distance that probably was too sharp for him. Under these much more favorable conditions, the son of Cairo Prince seems set for a career top effort. If Id Told You (TOC=3-1; ML=3-1) makes his third start off a layoff and, theoretically, it should be his best. The G. Mandella-trained gelding closed with purpose to finish second in a similar affair over a mile last time out, gets an extra furlong to work with today, and projects to settle in the second flight and then have dead aim and every chance from the top of the lane to the wire. J. Hernandez got to know him last time out and stays aboard. Discretionary Day (TOC=6-1; ML=4-1) has a prior win over the local lawn and projects to be the controlling speed. He’s never been farther than a mile but based on pedigree and the projected race flow the son of Acclamation could take this field a very long way.

Notable Workouts:

Touchdown Brown (March 19, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.3h). Grade: B
Breezing through the lane inside Rantanen (4f, :48.3h), splits of :11.4 and :36.3 from the three furlong pole to the wire on our watches before continuing out an extra furlong in easy style. Looks to be in fine fettle and ready to produce a forward move.
View Workout Video


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RACE 6: Post: 3:39 PT Grade: C
Use (in order of preference): 8-Grandcourse Guy; 6-Wall Street Trader

Forecast: Grandcourse Guy (TOC=3/2; ML=5/2), a distant second in a stronger-than-par race for this maiden $40,000 level last month, should run at least as well and probably better with the benefit of a cozy outside draw in this modest extended sprint for older horses. He never seems to find much under pressure late, but against this group the Distorted Humor gelding may have found his friends. Wall Street Trader (TOC=4-1; ML=3-1) is a first-off-the-claim for J. Sadler (solid stats with this angle) and is worth a big look on that angle alone, though his numbers so far have been well below par. In a race without any effective closers, his best chance might be to outrun Grandcourse Guy early and then hold on late. While neither one is trustworthy, we’ll use both in rolling exotic play in a race that we’ll otherwise pass.

Notable Workouts:

Wall Street Trader (March 12, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.4h). Grade: B-
Ridden pretty good through the lane to be slightly second best with Famous Star (same time) for J. Sadler, final half mile :11.2, :23.1 and :48 flat, pretty much all out. Good final time but visually only fair to moderate, seeking another maiden claiming sprint for new connections.
View Workout Video


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RACE 7: Post: 4:12 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 8-Going to Vegas; 7-Neige Blanche; 6-Queen Goddess

Forecast: The defending race champion Going to Vegas (TOC=8/5; ML=9/5 had a nice comeback race last month when a closing second in the Buena Vista S.-G2 behind the controlling speed winner Leggs Galore and today stretches out to a more suitable trip in the 10-furlong Santa Ana S.-G3 for older fillies and mares. The daughter of Goldencents is reunited with “win rider” U. Rispoli, shows an easy training track breeze since that race, and should draft into a good stalking position and have every chance when the pressure is turned on. Neige Blanche (TOC=5/2; ML=7/2) may be more effective over a marathon trip but she’s won three of her last four starts and in her present form could be this good. She can be effective on the lead or from well off the pace, so regular rider J. Hernandez can assess the pace flow and adjust accordingly. Queen Goddess (TOC=6-1; ML=6-1) won the American Oaks-G1 in an off-the-turf event in late December but her form suggests she is just as comfortable on grass. The lightly-raced daughter of Empire Maker has room for improvement and can be expected to get at least a piece of the purse.

Notable Workouts:

Going to Vegas (March 19, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.3h TT). Grade: B+
Breezing in easy half mile training track drill, splits of :12.1, :24 flat and :48.2 on our watches while maintaining her edge. Seems set for her typical top quality performance.
View Workout Video


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RACE 8: Post: 4:44 PT Grade:
Use (in order of preference): 5-Fenestra; 2-California Street

Forecast: Fenestra (TOC=Evens; ML=3-1) is a 6-year-old gelding with just five career starts (three victories) and most recently produced a career top speed figure when winning a $32,000 claimer after pressing a hot pace and then coming away late when it mattered. He’s back in 15 days to take advantage of this starter’s allowance condition, so the short rest is a concern, but if he can repeat his last race the V. Cerin-trained son of Street Sense should be tough to deny again. California Street (TOC=3-1; ML=5/2) is a much more seasoned sprinter with six wins from 23 starts, three of which have been earned over this seven furlong distance. Claimed back for $50,000 last time out by trainer T. Yakteen in a sign of confidence, the late-running son of Street Boss retains regular pilot U. Rispoli and projects to settle well off the pace and then blast home from the quarter pole to the wire. With any kind of help up front, he should be difficult to contain. We’re expecting the winner to be one of these two, with a slight preference on top to Fenestra.

Notable Workouts:

California Street (March 13, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2h). Grade: B
Mildly ridden through the lane while coming the final three furlongs in a solid :36.2. Maintains is form after being claimed back by T. Yakteen, most comfortable in an extended sprint and is especially effective at seven furlongs.
View Workout Video


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RACE 9: Post: 5:15 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 9-Delmona; 2-Hail Columbia

Forecast: Despite breaking slowly and then moving up to press the pace, Delmona (TOC=4/5; ML=5/2) hit the front entering the lane but was nailed right on the wire in her U.S. debut over this course and distance last month while returning to her European form that saw her finish second (beaten a neck) to subsequent Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint-G2 winner Twilight Gleaming in a listed stakes last summer at Deauville. The J. Mullins-trained filly shows three easy breezes since that race, so she’s the logical favorite and top pick in this downhill turf dash for first-level allowance sophomore fillies. Hail Columbia (TOC=10-1; ML=12-1) won a high-priced maiden claiming dirt sprint in her debut in January in a productive race that has produced two subsequent winners, once of which (Unsolved Mystery) graduated in her next start by more than eight lengths and then went on to win the Arizona Oaks. She’s a very quick daughter of Exaggerator that projects to be the controlling speed and could prove to be an elusive target if she can clear without pressure (full discloser, this handicapper is part owner of Hail Columbia).

Notable Workouts:

I Got a Gal (March 21, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00h TT). Grade: B+
Breezing in solo training track drill, easy early, plenty left late with splits of :24.1, :35.2 and 1:00 flat for P. Eurton. Looked quite sharp, but always does in the a.m. Threw in a clunker in Sweet Life S.-G3 after an impressive maiden win, tough one to gauge.
View Workout Video

Dolly May (March 18, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.3h TT). Grade: C+
Ridden hard through the lane and was late changing leads in solo training track drill for J. Sadler, splits of :24.2, :36.1 and 1:01.2, fair to moderate drill for Irish filly. Winless since being imported, trying to find her level.
View Workout Video


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