Log In

Al Cimaglia: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis | Sunday, March 27, 2022

by Al Cimaglia

March 27, 2022

The feature at Cal Expo rolls in Race 4 when 4-year-old colts and geldings battle for a share of a $20,000 purse in California Sires Stakes action. The 0.20 Pick 4 starts in Race 8. The sequence has a $25,000-guaranteed pool with a 16% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 8

6-Sierra Mystique (5-1)-Will look for some value in the opening leg which isn't very formful. This mare has won 6 of 18 at CalX and 2 of the last 3 starts. The Watson barn has won 2 of 4 races in the last 30 days and this 5-year-old is worth a long look at the morning line price.
7-Helen's Girl (6-1)-Had a dull February but has rounded back into form in the last 3 starts and could be overlooked at the windows. Lackey needs to work a smooth trip and this race could have some honest fractions which should also help.

Race 9

1-Allmyx'sliventexas (5/2)-Form has been spotty versus this kind but this is a good post draw to take control. Likes to get the top, make others chase when going well, and that script could play out here.
3-Its Pointless (8/5)-Short field helps and is a check-casher at this level but not crazy about the short price. Likes to grind up off cover and that could work but not if #1 has its way on the front end.

Race 10

2-Outlawnothnbutsmrt (12-1)-Looking for a price and this 4-year-old has hit the board in 9 of 12 starts with 4 wins at CalX. Goulet could work a close-up trip and use one move down the lane to roll by.
5-Trey Rockette (5/2)-Gets a +++ driver change in Plano taking the lines. Stayed inside, was shuffled to last into a dull pace and came on belatedly with a nice rally down the lane. Looking for a different trip and a more aggressive steer.

Race 11

3-Marced Magic (3-1)-Hasn't had the best of trips but Plano returns, and that change could be significant. Beat this kind on 1-23 with the same pilot between the pipes. The same result happened on 2-27 and #6 finished 3rd that night. Looks like a solid player here.
6-Dislocator (2-1)-Should be bet down off a troubled trip down the lane in last. Stayed inside, caught a shuffle to last and then was blocked near the wire. Figures to be in the mix versus this kind but is only 1-16 at CalX. Shouldn't offer any value but is difficult to leave off the ticket.

0.20 Pick 4

Total Bet=$3.20

Check me out on Twitter!