Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TOC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100-point takeout.

The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.

Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.

For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 3-Hudson Ridge; 6-There Goes Harvard; 1-Sword Zorro

Forecast: Let’s go for a bit of gamble with Hudson Ridge (TOC=8-1; ML=6-1) in this second-level allowance turf miler that came up quite competitive. A stakes winner as a 3-year-old over the local lawn, the son of American Pharoah has been unplaced in his last five starts but continues to train well while stretching out again, removing blinkers, and switching to J. Hernandez. He’s 6-1 on the morning line and is better than that off his best effort, so in a race that projects to have soft early splits the S. McCarthy-trained colt should draft into an ideal stalking position and have every chance from there. There Goes Harvard (TOC=2-1; ML=4-1) earned a huge number when dead-heating in a victory against a softer group on the main track last month. He is just as good if not better on grass, and projects to settle in the second flight outside with dead aim on the leaders every step of the way. Sword Zorro (TOC=6-1; ML=7/2) launches a comeback for J. Sadler (superior stats with layoff runners) and won the Singletary S. over this course and distance last year. His recent workouts indicate fitness, so with some pace up front the Irish-bred colt should be heard from late.

Notable Workouts:

Sword Zorro (May 6, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01h TT). Grade: B
Mild coaxing throughout in solid solo training track work on the comeback trail for Sadler, splits of :24.4, :36.2 and 1:00.4 on our watches. Coming back well at least as well as he left, was a stakes winner over the local lawn last year; still has second-level allowance conditions.
View Workout Video

Vantastic (May 8, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.2h TT). Grade: B+
Looked sharp and eager in solo training track drill for P. Eurton, final three furlongs in :11.4 and :35 flat (may have gone faster than given). Can sprint or route when he’s on his game.
View Workout Video

Hudson Ridge (May 8, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.4h TT). Grade: B
Very light coaxing late in solo training track drill for S. McCarthy, strong throughout with splits of :23.4, :35.4, and :59.4, plenty left late. Seems perked up for an improved try based on this drill.
View Workout Video

Moody Jim (May 4, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.4h). Grade: B-
Mild urging through the lane in solo training track drill for J. Mullins, splits of :24.3, :36.3 and 1:01 flat on our watches, okay work, nothing scintillating. May not be quite as sharp now as he’s been in the past.
View Workout Video


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RACE 2: Post: 1:35 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 2-Royal Halo; 1-Knockout Guy

Forecast: Royal Halo may not be as quick as his :34 3/5 gate drill shows – he was asked pretty hard and went a few ticks slower than given while second best of a team – but in a maiden state-bred sprint for juveniles that came up weaker than normal the son of Curlin to Mischief probably deserves top billing by default. The barn generally does well with its young stock, so we’ll put this homebred colt on top while also including Knockout Guy, a debuting son of Ministers Wild Cat with a reasonable series of workouts on his resume. He might be able to run some but will need to leave cleanly from the rail. Tread lightly here.

Notable Workouts:

Royal Halo (May 11, Santa Anita, 3f, :34.3hg). Grade: B-
Ridden aggressively every step of the way while second best with Helladic (5f, 1:01.1hg) for L. Mendez, a couple of lengths behind workmate went eased up after three furlongs and going slower than given on our watches, :23.2 and :35 flat. Has bit of run but not as good as inflated final time might lead one to believe, though he’s likely good enough to act with soft maiden Cal-bred juveniles in upcoming debut.
View Workout Video

Good N Thirsty (May 7, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.4h). Grade: C+
Asked and ridden in the final furlong in solo five furlong drill for Solis, splits of :36.2 and 1:02.1 on our watches, a couple of ticks slower and not visually impressive. From cold barn, probably would prefer to see one first.
View Workout Video


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RACE 3: Post: 2:09 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 4-Aventapp; 1-Stressed; 5-Girl Ranger

Forecast: Aventapp (TOC=9/5; ML=5-1) wired a maiden $50,000 field in a confidence-building score over this course and distance last month and appears well-spotted for a possible repeat in this starter’s allowance sprint for fillies and mares. The main concern is that she will have to contend with a quicker early pace today, especially if Stressed is gunned from the rail. Stressed (TOC=5-1; ML=4-1) returns to the claiming ranks for the first time since beating a maiden $80,000 field more than a year ago on dirt. This will be her second outing following a layoff, and the daughter of Goldencents seems likely to produce a forward move. Girl Ranger is turning back from a couple of route tries and might be a late threat if patiently ridden. In a race that we’ll otherwise pass, all three should be included in rolling exotic play.

Notable Workouts:

Girl Ranger (May 7, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.4h). Grade: C+
Mild urging through the lane while inside Cinnamon Cat (same time) while working from three furlong pole to the seven furlong pole, splits of :11.4, :36.2 and :49 flat on our watches. Nothing special on dirt, probably prefers the lawn.
View Workout Video


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RACE 4: Post: 2:43 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference: 1-Golf Drama; 4-Fordy G; 5-Thirsty John

Forecast: Here’s a split of the second race, a maiden juvenile abbreviated sprint. This looks like the tougher division. Golf Drama recorded a three furlong gate drill in :36 2/5 earlier this month (see below) but actually went considerably faster than given and looked good doing it. The son of Smiling Tiger is bred to win early, so if he breaks cleanly from the rail the J. Bonde-trained colt should have a big say in the matter. Fordy G. has a series of fast gate works on his resume and clearly has been cranked up for a major effort first time out. He’s a homebred son of American Freedom that seems certain to receive plenty of play on the tote. Thirsty John probably is a down the road type but he can run a bit, might be closing well, and is worth tossing in on a ticket or two for protection.

Notable Workouts:

Golf Drama (May 1, Santa Anita, 3f, :36.3hg). Grade: B+
Was a tad slow leaving the gate but then displayed excellent speed while besting Lucy L (4f, :48.4hg) for J. Bonde while going several ticks quicker than given, splits of :23.4 and :35 flat without undue pressure. Son of Smiling Tiger appears to have “win early” ability and should be a live item first crack out of the box when facing juvenile state-bred runners.
View Workout Video

Smokin Amelia (May 11, Santa Anita, 4f, :49.3h). Grade: B-
In blinkers, under a nice hold throughout inside Cocktail Princess (same time), final three furlongs in :12 flat and :37.1. No world beater but probably has a bit of improvement in her.
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Midnight Lightning (April 17, Santa Anita, 4f, :50h). Grade: B-
Clearly best over Golden Again (4f, :50h) in easy breeze for S. Knapp, splits of :12.2, :24.1 and :49.4, never asked. Getting fit, was run up to $130,000 at auction last year and may have some ability.
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Fordy G (April 28, Santa Anita, 4f, :46.2hg). Grade: B
Urged most of the way while second best with older Honor It (5f, :59.4hg) and well ahead of Reign of Speed (4f, :48.2hg) for Hanson, splits of :23 flat, :34.2 and :46.4, excellent speed for a juvenile. Have to think he’ll be live at first asking in an abbreviated dash.
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Thirsty John (April 24, Santa Anita, 4f, :49.3h). Grade: B-
A bit awkward changing leads but did okay in solo main track drill for Solis, final three furlongs in :11.4 and :36.3. Was run up to $97,000 at auction last year; strikes us as a colt that probably will do his best when the distances increase. Has some ability.
View Workout Video


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RACE 5: Post: 3:16 PT Grade: X
Single: 1-Queen Goddess

Forecast: Queen Goddess (TOC=3/5; ML=6/5) will be trying this marathon trip for the first time but based on pedigree (Empire Maker x Lemon Drop Kid) the M. McCarthy-trained filly should have no trouble handling the 12-furlong distance, especially in her projected role as the controlling speed. A recent victory over 10 furlongs in the Santa Ana S.-G3 with Neige Blanche behind her was visually pleasing, and as the winner of the American Oaks-G1 on dirt in December in gate to wire fashion she certainly knows how to take advantage of a front-running trip. At 6/5 on the morning line, she’s a rolling exotic single.

Notable Workouts:

Queen Goddess (May 7, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.4h). Grade: B
Ridden some through the lane and responded well enough, final half mile in :24 flat and :48.2 while holding her edge. Tough at any surface but might be most comfortable on turf, next stop Santa Barbara S.
View Workout Video


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RACE 6: Post: 3:49 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 2-Your Ringer; 6-Poet Laureate

Forecast: Your Ringer was claimed for $50,000 last summer in her debut at Del Mar (she was beaten a nose while more than three lengths clear of the rest) but had to be stopped on soon after. She returns in a plausible spot for trainer J. Sadler (strong stats with layoff runners) and shows a series of workouts over the very fast Los Alamitos main track that should have her fit enough. Poet Laureate is a first-timer from the T. Yakteen barn with a solid foundation of workouts, including a gate drill (see below) that was good enough to make her a threat in this league. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with a slight preference on top to Your Ringer.

Notable Workouts:

Poet Laureate (April 24, Santa Anita, 4f, :48hg). Grade: B-
Okay work for a maiden claiming type, splits of :24 flat, :35.4 and :48 flat while even but a tad the best inside Lucy L (same time) for Yakteen, ridden some early but under no real pressure late. Seems fairly fit, should be competitive with moderate fillies and mares.
View Workout Video


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RACE 7: Post: 4:19 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 7-Suite Madam Blue; 5-Harper’s Gallop; 6-Storming Lady; 2-Respectfully

Forecast: This grass grab bag for starter allowance fillies and mares requires a considerable spread in rolling exotic play. We’ll go four-deep but if you feel the need to include a few more, go right ahead. Suite Madam Blue (TOC=2-1; ML=3-1) looked pretty nice beating a starter $25,000 field over this turf course last time out, employing a good pace-stalking strategy and then coming away late to win with a career top speed figure. If she can turn in two alike, she can win again. Harper’s Gallop (TOC=3-1; ML=, away since November but coming from the L. Powell barn (strong stats from a limited sample with this angle), might prefer more distance and in fact might be prepping for a stretch-out, but her grass form is solid and she is reunited with “win rider” J. Hernandez. Storming Lady (TOC=5-1; ML=4-1) is another that likely will be doing her best work from off the pace. This extended sprint trip seems ideal for her. Respectfully (TOC=6-1; ML=6-1) has a prior win over this course and distance and comes off a clever score in a state-bred allowance race on the main track. She is slower on numbers than the other main contenders but is still worth including as a back-up or a saver.


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RACE 8: Post: 4:50 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 2-One More Bid; 6-Go Joe Won

Forecast: One More Bid projects as the controlling speed if he wants to be in this maiden mile affair that attracted a modest field of just six runners. The R. Hanson-trained gelding exits a pair of much tougher events, shows strong workouts since raced, and really shouldn’t miss this chance at 2-1 on the morning line. Go Joe Won displayed improvement when second over this track and distance in his second career outing last month and is worth using as a back-up or a saver, with the main punch going to One More Bid.

Notable Workouts:

Palagio (May 8, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.4h). Grade: C+
Never really asked but didn’t do a whole lot in solo main track drill, final half mile in :24.3 and :51.1. Perhaps a lazy type and certainly isn’t very inspiring in the a.m. Have to think he can improve some with experience and distance.
View Workout Video

Lord Sheldon (May 9, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.4h). Grade: C+
Plodding type went off slowly and then was urged through the lane without much pick-up, splits of :12.4, :25 flat, :36.4 and 1:02 flat on our watches. Down the road type.
View Workout Video


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RACE 9: Post: 5:21 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 9-Rose’s Crystal; 1-Virulante; 4-With This Vow

Forecast: The nightcap is a difficult starter’s allowance turf miler for fillies and mares. We’ll go three deep but not with a great deal of confidence. Rose’s Crystal (TOC=9/2; ML=4-1) adds blinkers for the first time, and with enough pace up front to compliment her style she may be able to produce a winning late kick, though she’s generally prefers to just nibble. But on pure numbers, she’s capable of winning this race. Virulente (TOC=7/2; ML=6-1) earned a confidence building win in an optional $50,000 claimer at this trip over the local lawn last month, though the number came up a tad weak. The French-bred filly has a good stalking style and plenty of room for improvement, and from her favorable rail draw the P. D’Amato-trained import is guaranteed a ground-saving trip. Win This Vow (TOC=5/2; ML=5-1) wired the field over this course and distance in a slightly softer starter’s event and similar tactics most likely will be tried today. She’s clearly in good form but will need to produce a forward move to win at this level.


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