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Frank Carulli: Saratoga Pick 4 Analysis | Friday, August 19, 2022

by Frank Carulli

August 18, 2022

Only two favorites have won spanning the last three Fridays of Saratoga’s Late Pick 4. If the trend continues this week, it could produce a four-figure payout for the 50-cent wager. Friday's final four also are close-out races in the $167,611 pick six carryover.

Here are some notes to help shape your ticket:

SAR 7th race (4:29 EST) -- CROWDING OUT settled between rivals in the second flight after a bumpy start, awaited room behind a wall of horses turning for home, then closed strongly to win when she found a 3-wide seam. She caught MRS GREEN, who returned with a sharp MSW victory (85 Beyer) and held off troubled favorite HEY THERE. She gets plenty of pace to run at in her second start after a 10-month layoff. A LITTLE FAITH had troubled starts in five of her last nine starts and still managed two wins, a second and a third in those races. She draws a good post if she breaks alertly. Stakes-placed entrants FREEDOM SPEAKS and AMERICAN STARLET will draw plenty of attention on the inside, as both finished behind Last Leaf, a winner of four consecutive stakes for 3-year-old fillies. However, Freedom Speaks benefited from a front-end duel in that five-horse field and switches surfaces, while speedy American Starlet probably will be an underlay after she led until late in an allowance race against the boys that came back weak (9/1-0-0 next-out starters).

SAR 8th race (5:05 EST) -- Proven graded stakes form abounds in the $135,000 Summer Colony, with seven entrants combining for a 102/32-27-17 record, $4 million in earnings and an ‘ALL’ punch on the Pick 4 ticket. ENVOUTANTE, a two-time Grade II winner at this distance, tries to bounce back from an ‘empty’ seasonal debut in the Grade I Beholder Mile at Santa Anita and become the sport’s newest millionaire. LEADER OF THE BAND and ARMY WIFE are graded stakes winners at 1-1/8 miles and finished behind odds-on favorite Search Results (4-6, $1.2 million) in the Grade III Molly Pitcher last out. BONNY SOUTH ran fourth in the Molly Pitcher but the added ground helps the late-running millionaire at her best distance. FIRST TO ACT rallied into a fast allowance pace to win going away and makes her stakes debut. MISTY VEIL’S class will be tested, but she carried her speed to a win and a second on ‘off’ tracks in allowance company at Saratoga last year and shows a pair of :47.1 bullet workouts over the track to prepare for her return.

SAR 9th race (5:39 EST) -- Trainer Rudy Rodriguez, whose horses are 66-253 with $3.5 million in earnings this year, entered the week mired in a 1-for-50 slump. He sends out recent claims DIVA READY and VINTAGE GIRL in a wide-open turf route, so use both. DIVA READY’s 3-wide stretch rally two starts back stalled in the final 1/8th behind hard-hitting winner Rosebud’s Hope (27/8-8-5, $264k), then she got the jump on the longshot winner last out and finished second for a $35,000 tag. Also use RADIANT GEM, who can be excused for a troubled trip last out after she rallied into a fast and slow pace for repeat photo-finish victories at today’s distance.

SAR 10th race (6:13 EST) – OXYMORE was purchased privately after a smashing wire-to-wire debut score on the Belmont lawn in which he ‘broke very fast’ and ‘powered away.’ Co-owner Michael Dubb had this race on the radar ever since. If Oxymore doesn’t win, his new stable-mate, APPRAISE, could do so for leading trainer Chad Brown. He sat a golden trip off a contested duel, but he had to dig deep to repel a mid-stretch challenge and win at first asking.

Suggested 50-cent Ticket

SAR 7th Race: 5, 8
SAR 8th Race: ALL
SAR 9th Race: 2, 4, 6
SAR 10th Race: 3, 8

COST: $42