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Al Cimaglia: Dayton Raceway All Stakes Late Pick 4 Analysis

by Al Cimaglia

October 1, 2022

Tonight, Dayton Raceway has a loaded 12-race card comprised of Ohio Sires Stakes Championships and Grand Circuit Stakes. The other attention getter is Bulldog Hanover tries for his 11th straight win in Race 12. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 9, and it will be my focus.

Realistically, Bulldog Hanover could extend his winning streak to 11, it wouldn't be a surprise. The horse is so dominant he may not lose this year. But if he is going to be beaten, tonight could be the best chance of it happening. Draws outside on a smaller oval with many who will be leaving hard. This race can set-up differently as there could be a bunch looking for first place money rather than positioning themselves to cash a check. So, I will swing against the freak named Bulldog Hanover with a modest $12 investment.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 9

6-Back Of The Neck (3-1)-Came off the bench with a strong effort to win the Maple Leaf Trot and rolled the back half in 54.1 to sweep by at a nice price. Willing to stick with a horse in fine form and making only the 5th start of the year. Has enough gate speed to be forwardly placed and will count on Tim Tetrick to provide the right journey.

Race 10

3-Test Of Faith (6/5)-Winner of 5 of the last 7 looks like the best with a clean trip and from this post that should be doable. Doesn't usually blast off the gate so there might be some who look to use one or two more in this race. But should be difficult to down from this starting slot, and if dialed on high it could be picture time again.

Race 11

2-Bythemissal (4/5)-This Ron Burke pupil has been at another level. With this post draw it is difficult to envision a loss but it's racing, and anything can happen. Sling Shock (6) could present a challenge, but Chris Page should control this race. Unless Missal is having an off night, passing him down the lane probably doesn't happen.

Race 12

3-American Courage (6-1)-This Alexander trainee can leave in a hurry but can also come off cover. Matt Kakaley knows this 4-year-old very well. My guess is the pedal will be down to land on the point and could get an efficient trip.
4-This Is The Plan (12-1)- Not the easiest to handle at times but Yannick Gingras knows what buttons to push. Wins have been difficult to come by but can dial it up with the best of them at times. The pace will probably be hot, and the price should be right to take a swing.
5-Workin On A Mystery (10-1)-Has tailed off but the post draw gods have not been kind. The Burke pupil could get a decent trip from this spot and David Miller should have him in striking range at a juicy price.
6-Catch The Fire (8-1)-Was dialed on high when put away for a rest in August and didn't fire hot off the bench at Hoosier in the Pacing Derby. Probably the only chance to take a picture, like a few others, is to blast out and hope. Using figuring the program odds are low.
7-Allywag Hanover (7/2)-Even with this post draw the Brett Pelling trainee could land on the point or no worse than the 2-hole. If Todd McCarthy gets the jump on Bulldog, it could make for a miserable trip for the chalk and there should be a cluster trying to do the same. Maybe this will be night for some revenge??
9-Charlie May (9/2)-Chances for a win are heavily compromised with this post draw but recent form has been super sharp and won't be an odds-on favorite here. Will need everything to click but not going to dismiss this 4-year-old with a giant heart.

$2.00 Late Pick 4

6/3/2/3,4,5,6,7,9
Total Bet=$12

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