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Al Cimaglia: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis | $25,000 Guaranteed Pool | Friday, February 10, 2023

by Al Cimaglia

February 10, 2023

Cal Expo begins the weekend with a 10-race card. The popular 0.20 Pick 4 starts in Race 7. The sequence has a $25,000 guaranteed pool with a 16% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 7

4-Alwaysalittlemore(4-1)-Plano sat in the pocket last week and raced hard to the wire but was no match for HF Flower. Should be battling the 2 below and for those not wanting to single #7 this mare should be on the ticket.
5-Jessie Girl (8-1)-Comes out of the same race as the one above but was far back early. Did rally but needed to go 3-wide versus a well-meant winner and the trip took its toll. Paced the back half in 57.1 and the shorter field tonight should help.
7-Wonder Of Love (6/5)-On a form spree and was much the best as an odds on choice leaving from post 10 on Sunday. This 5-year-old is a perfect 4 for 4 in 2023 and has captured 7 of 9 lifetime wins in the past 2 years. This is the 2nd start for the Ellis barn and is back in for a $6,000 tag. Deserves respect but this field could be more of a challenge, using and looking to others who have some value.

Race 8

1-Lil Screamer (3-1)-Even effort in last, faces easier here and hoping won't be over bet. Gets Shawn Thayer between the pipes and he has been hot. The 2-5 start was on an off track, could be better on a dry surface with a new pilot.
3-Outlawburntpopcorn (6-1)-This veteran drops and gets a ++ driver change in James Kennedy as the trainer hands over the lines. This was Kennedy's choice over the 7/8 and should race near the top of the stack.
8-Brooklyn Wind Up (5/2)-The Kiel barn has won 25% of its starts over the past 30 days and Longo will do the steering. The post should help the price and could win from out here if dialed on high. Wasn't Kennedy's choice, he stayed loyal to Pacheco (3).

Race 9

2-Ivar (1-1)-Drew off by over 8 lengths versus this kind on 2-3 and will likely be 1/5 again. Short field won't hurt chances and the Ellis barn has had the magic touch. This will be the 2nd start off a claim and the last race was on an off track.
7-Ideal One A (4-1)-This 12-year-old probably has good enough speed to beat anyone in this field. But he does have some issues behind the gate and goes off-stride at times. Finished a beaten 2nd, 8 lengths behind Ivar last time but broke at the start. Svendsen steers again and if this veteran can have a clean trip he could make a race of it. Won in 153.4 at CalX last year.

Race 10

2-Cal's Hope (4-1)-This race is devoid of form but this 5-year-old gets a ++ driver change in Plano and that is enough to get a spot on this ticket. Doesn't like to pass horses down the lane so could be forwardly placed and look to shake loose late.
3-Bobleeswagger (3-1)-Makes the 2nd start for the Tremblay barn after breaking stride on Sunday. Svendsen is back steering again and gets post relief. Not liking a short price but should be a player against this crew.
6-Outlawgrandetorino (15-1)-Was far back early in a gapped out field and was caught 3-wide on the backside. Still kept coming in an ugly race. Will look for a better trip and finish at a price, in a battle of basement dwellers.

0.20 Pick 4

4,5,7/1,3,8/2,7/2,3,6
Total Bet=$10.80

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