The Road to the Triple Crown makes a stop in Louisiana this Saturday at the Fair Grounds for the Grade 2, $400,000 Risen Star Stakes, which headlines a monster 13-race card that features six star-studded stakes events. Action gets underway at 1:00PM ET, with the Risen Star slated for Race 13, at 7:14PM ET.

My focus on Saturday is the Fair Ground’s $500K Guaranteed All-Stakes Late Pick 5, which is a non-jackpot-style bet that features 15% takeout.

Here’s my approach:

Race 9 (5:05PM ET) // $100K Colonel Power S. // About 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf)

This is a tough race to handicap as 6-of-14 entrants are marooned on the ‘also eligible’ list, meaning they won’t get in unless there is a scratch from the main body of the field. Let’s focus on the horses that we know are going to race, and then we can briefly look at those that would be of interest if they draw in. #7 ANGASTON (9/2) is up against it, making just his second start since August 2019 (and his first since June 2021), but he appears to have the early foot to clear this field. I don’t love the layoff, so I’ll also use #1 ICE CHOCOLAT (7/2), #3 ALL IN SYNC (9/2), #4 PYRON (10/1) and #8 SURVEILLANCE (5/2) on the ticket. Of those on the AE list, priority goes to #13 STRAIGHT ANSWER (7/2) and #10 MY PAL MATTIE (5/1), whose presence would turn the field upside down from a pace perspective. He appears to be the quickest early.

Race 10 (5:37PM ET) // $250K Mineshaft S. (G3) // 1 1/16 Miles (Dirt)

With more popular connections, you’d think #6 HAPPY AMERICAN (7/2) would be a much shorter choice, given he has won two straight over this strip with solid speed figures. This field is slightly deeper than those last two races, as #7 PIONEER OF MEDINA (9/2) ships in from Gulfstream and Ohio Derby/Lexington winner #3 TAWNY PORT (4/1) makes his seasonal debut. PIONEER OF MEDINA is a clear threat to wire this field, especially with Luis Saez in the irons and gets the nod from me over HAPPY AMERICAN.

Race 11 (6:09PM ET) // $150K Fair Grounds S. (G3) // About 1 1/8 Miles (Turf)

Have to respect #2 TWO EMMYS (3/1) a lot here. The seven-year-old gelding has historically overachieved and finds a race void of much early speed. He has the ability to dictate this race from start to finish. #4 GENTLE SOUL (7/2) ran him down late in a prep race here on Jan 21 and is 3-for-4 over this turf course. The only blemish came when he was on put on the lead two back. He seems to thrive better when he has a target to chase. #1 TIZ THE BOMB (9/2) is an absolute wildcard as he enters off a long layoff.

Race 12 (6:41PM ET) // $300K Rachel Alexandra S. (G2) // 1 1/16 Miles (Dirt)

As one of the early Kentucky Oaks favorites, #2 HOOSIER PHILLY (6/5) is a standout in this group. I do have concerns there, though. She has never raced away from Churchill Downs and has been off approaching three months. I was shocked when #4 CHOP CHOP (8/5) was defeated in the Silverbulletday S. last month at Fair Grounds – turned away by a less heralded stablemate – but the blinkers she adds today may keep her focused late.

Race 13 (7:14PM ET) // $400K Risen Star S. (G2) // 1 1/8 Miles (Dirt)

Brad Cox’s fingerprints are all over the top of the ‘Road to the Kentucky Derby’ Leaderboard, with four of the top 11 horses under his care. He sends out three entries in this race and my focus is on his top two chances, #13 VICTORY FORMATION (3/1) and #8 TAPIT’S CONQUEST (6/1). VICTORY FORMATION drew terribly, but has the natural early speed to clear most of his inside rivals. I think he can make the lead if Flavien Prat wants, or he can sit just off a pace set by Determinedly or Harlocap. TAPIT’S CONQUEST nearly ran down Determinedly in an allowance race at Fair Grounds in January despite a very slow early pace. If things heat up on the front end, he’ll be running best late.


My Ticket

Race 9 : #1 ICE CHOCOLAT, #3 ALL IN SYNC, #4 PYRON, #6 MANNY WAH, #7 ANGASTON, #8 SURVEILLANCE
Race 10: #3 TAWNY PORT, #6 HAPPY AMERICAN, #7 PIONEER OF MEDINA
Race 11: #2 TWO EMMYS, #4 GENTLE SOUL
Race 12: #2 HOOSIER PHILLY, #4 CHOP CHOP
Race 13: #8 TAPIT’S CONQUEST, #1 VICTORY FORMATION

Ticket Cost: $72 for 50-cents