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Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

by Al Cimaglia

February 26, 2023

Northfield Park has 15 races scheduled and the $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a low 14% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11

2-Lancaster Hill (2-1)-Kreiser trainee drops to a spot for a picture. Has raced at this level 3 times since 11-21 and has 2 wins and a 3rd place finish. Billy Davis Jr should be on the lead soon after the wings fold and will play catch me if you can.

Race 12

1-Dontyousayit (3-1)-Can't say my confidence is brimming with 2 wins in 38 starts over the past 2 years but using and will fade the program chalk #4 (9/5) that didn't look great on the track last week. Gets a positive driver change in Merriman and should have the lead off the gate. Will spread in this leg and look for better value.
3-Wadadli (9/2)-Has been competitive at this level but hasn't been able to finish off the mile for a win. The same can be said for this field, but draws into a slot where Myers can race close to the lead and use one-move late.
5-Megabank K (25-1)-Shipped in from the Meadows to appear here last week and was stuck with post 9. Raced evenly and was off 3-weeks before the start. Should be a price but not 25-1, and has hit the board in 12 of 16 starts at Nfld posting 4 wins.
9-Kandy Sweet (8-1)-Beat the $75k claimers back on October 26 at YR and hasn't taken a picture since. Will need to get some racing luck with this post draw but should be able to follow #1 off the gate and land a decent seat. The price could be better than the morning line.

Race 13

1-Bernie (5/2)-Was slow off the gate and then rallied in a big way off cover to finish a close 2nd. Stahl should be racing close to the lead and will be tough to beat with a top effort.
3-Bettor Than Spring (5-1)-Does well getting on the point and controlling the race. That strategy can work with this post draw as others with good gate speed drew outside. Davis Jr could get the top and make every call a winning one.

Race 14

1-Dancin Dragon (3-1)-Went off at 2/5 from the rail on 1-8 and beat this kind at Nfld. Takes a meaningful drop from the Open ranks. Wrenn is steering and should be racing on the lead or near the top of the stack and either can work for a picture.
3-Almanac (4-1)-Bumps up after a gate to wire score at 1/2, loses Merriman to the one above but Davis Jr can provide a sharp steer. This is the 3rd start for the Holzman barn and has shown improvement. Should offer a square price and has the gate speed to get the top again.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

2/1,3,5,9/1,3/1,3
Total Bet=$16

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