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Al Cimaglia: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis | Friday, March 3, 2023

by Al Cimaglia

March 3, 2023

Cal Expo has an 11-race program to start the weekend. The 0.20 Pick 4 begins in Race 7. The sequence has a $25,000 guaranteed pool with a 16% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 7

6-Chase The Gold (6-1)-The 5-year-old has raced well at this meet and is in sharp form. Should be a major player and will be hard to beat if races back to its 2-11 start, but Miller needs to get off the gate alertly.
7-Keystone Tenacious (3-1)-Comes off a Judges scratch on 2-11. That night the track was sloppy, and the off-track record is 0-10. Could be the one to beat if 100% ready to race and if the track is dry.
8-Major Attribute (4-1)-Willing to toss the last start on a sloppy track. This is the 3rd drive in a row for Plano and he did post a win at this class 2 back. Needs to avoid being well behind the leaders early, has a big chance if in striking range turning for the wire.

Race 8

1-Gray Zee (15-1)-Raced from the back in last on a sloppy track and really wasn't involved. Thayer sticks, drops and if duplicates the effort on 2-10 it could finally be picture time.
4-Watchmeneighneigh (3-1)-Was wide for most of the mile in the last start which was on a sloppy track. The off-track record is 1-17, comes back in sequence, drops and could be sitting on a big try. This was Longo's choice over another stable entry #10.
7-Dance Traveler (12-1)-Re-qualified on 1-29 after double sick scratches in January and has been tossing hints in the last 2 starts. This is another dropper, Svendsen takes the lines and that is a positive driver in the 5th race off the bench.

Race 9

5-Prom Queen (5/2)-Bumps up a notch after being last at the half and needed to come 6-wide on a sloppy track. Tried to rally but hung late. Expecting a better trip and finish as Svendsen replaces Mullet on the beaten favorite.
6-Kiss On The Lips (7/2)-This is another who bumps up, raced on a sloppy track and fits with this crew. Plano stayed inside, caught a shuffle and closed quickly after shaking loose to finish 2nd. The short field won't hurt its chances and has the gate speed to be forwardly placed.

Race 10

4-Outlawnothnbutsmrt (9/2)-This 5-year-old has won 6 of 28 at CalX and 2 of the last 3 starts have come on an off track. Wet track record is 0-7 and will take a swing for a price. Could connect for a win if Goulet can provide a sharp steer.
5-Frewil Dakota Sven (2-1)-Comes off a win on a sloppy track as the chalk, steps-up but can compete at this level. Not loving the short price but Irvine returns for his 2nd straight steer and this 8-year-old can stay good for another big effort.

0.20 Pick 4

6,7,8/1,4,7/5,6/4,5
Total Bet=$7.20

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