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Al Cimaglia: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis | Friday, March 17, 2023

by Al Cimaglia

March 17, 2023

Cal Expo has an 11-race card scheduled and it looks like the weather will cooperate. The 0.20 Late Pick 4 goes in Race 7. The sequence has a $25,000 guaranteed pool with a 16% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 7

2-Lisplaced (3-1)-Was on a heater and then took a few weeks off. Some of it had to do with cancellations and not sure if there are any other issues in involved. Raced from the back in a necessary start and should be a main player if dialed on high.
3-Johhny Ringo (6-1)-Thayer stuck with the Ellis entry #2 but Johnny comes off a big try and might be able to perform despite the class hike. Longo should have the Tremblay entry forwardly placed and is worth a swing at the morning line price.
5-Chancesitlikeitis (2-1)-Probably will be bet down and that's an issue. Has shown the ability to compete versus this kind but has become camera shy. Will respect chances and hope for others with more value in a sequence that is not easy to read.

Race 8

1-Polar Storm (2-1)-Was bet down to 1/2 in last and got on the engine but faded down the lane when bumped up to this level. Has been off 2 weeks and some will look to fade. But probably best to use for those playing multiple tickets, could be tough to beat if Thayer can steal a quarter.
2-Hollywood Double (4-1)-The 3-year-olds in this race draw inside and will use banking the post will be a big help. Last week, got the top, didn't look back and it was 1st time Lasix. Plano takes over and will look for an aggressive steer.
5-Kioti (7/2)-Steps up after going off at 2/5 and looked the part. Lost to #1 on 2-11 and it wasn't close but looking for some value and has been on the upswing.

Race 9

2-JP Jetty (3-1)-Beaten odd-on chalk steps up but still fits. Will be a better price and the trip should be better as well. Can be a main player but needs a more alert start.
3-Cenalata Firedragon (4-1)-Hasn't been driven aggressively in the last 2 starts and thinking that will change tonight. Plano should be racing near the top of the stack and could roll by down the lane.
5-Cenalta Hawk (5/2)-Came the long way home but still drew off with a 57.2 back half and a .27 last quarter. Has a stale date (2-24) but that might help the price and could win again if minds its manners.

Race 10

1-HF Flower (7/2)-Raced near the top with a quick pace for a sloppy track and the trip took its toll. Willing to toss that effort, off track record shows only 1 win in 9 races. Comes right back and should be better with a sharp steer.
4-Kiss On The Lips (7/2)-This 13-year-old has been racing well and trying hard in the last 4 starts. Plano grabs the lines and that could make a significant difference. In the last 4 races there were only 4 horses who finished ahead of this veteran mare and they are not in this bunch.

0.20 Pick 4

2,3,5/1,2,5/2,3,5/1,4
Total Bet=$10.80

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