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Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis | Sunday, March 19, 2023

by Al Cimaglia

March 19, 2023

Northfield Park will begin the week with a 15-race card. The popular $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 11 and last Sunday the pool total was over $39,000. This sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with only a 14% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11

7-Killer Instinct (5-1)-Missed a start and was compromised with post 7 after a long shot got on the engine and sizzled a 26.3 opening quarter. Finished 2nd after being 14 lengths back at the first call. The trip should be better and has hit the board in 6 of 7 at Nfld with 2 wins.
8-Winning Shadow (5/2)-Was a clear 2nd from post 7 to a well-rated winner. This is a game veteran, the pace could be lively and that will help Lems catch the leader.

Race 12

4-Lloyd's All In (2-1)-This 8-year-old has been racing over its head in the last 4 starts and now drops to the softest spot in quite a while. Merriman gets the call and beat better the last time he steered by over 5 lengths on 1-17. Has won 6 of 21 here and could be a clean trip away from the winner's circle.

Race 13

5-Odss on Osiris (3-1)-Missed a start and was used hard from post 6 to grab the point from the one below. Stayed game to the wire to finish 2nd but the trip took its toll. Starts inside of Dominic tonight and that could make a winning difference.
6-Speedy Dominic A (6-1)-Merriman won the last race against the one above with a patient drive. He will likely look for the same pocket trip. This time he might need to leave faster than Wrenn but doesn't have a post edge. Worth a swing at the morning line price and has a pilot who can figure out the right plan to win again.

Race 14

1-Nvrfearlloydishere (3-1)-Steps up after a big try racing 1st over from early on into some hot fractions and still finished gamely. This will be a test but gets a post edge and did win here in 1.50 last year.
6-Elver Hanover (5/2)-Pulled to come 1st over against a tough customer in a needed start. Drops in the 2nd start since 12-26 and gets a positive driver change with Wrenn grabbing the lines.
7-DD's Big Joe (12-1)-Missed a start, jumped up in class then caught a tough trip and faded. Merriman has some good gate speed to work with so looking for better at a solid price.
8-Catch Me Conrad (8-1)-Seeking some value in this leg, the post makes the price and does drop to a competitive level. Should be able to land in a decent seat and then Massey needs to provide a sharp steer. Has the speed to down this group and likes to win.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

7,8/4/5,6/1,6,7,8
Total Bet=$16

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