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Al Cimaglia: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis | Sunday, April 16, 2023

by Al Cimaglia

April 16, 2023

Cal Expo has a 10-race program in place featuring 3-year-old fillies battling in California Sires Stake action. The 0.20 Pick 4 starts in Race 7. The sequence has a $25,000 guaranteed pool, with a 16% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 7

1-Jessies Girl (9/2)-Came off a sick scratch with an even effort and drops. Took a picture the last time in with this kind on
3-17 and drew off by 7 lengths. One move type is a player if Irvine has this mare on top or in striking range turning for the wire.
3-Wish I Had Thyme (6-1)-The Castillo barn was hot on Friday and Longo should have this gal engaged from the start. Would be a value at the morning line price.
6-Brooklyn Moonshine (8-1)-The Plano barn has been clicking and Moonshine comes off an overdue win. There should be an honest pace and knows how to come off cover to roll by down the lane.
7-Brooklyn Wind Up (12-1)-Kennedy steers and a dull pace hurt chances in last, which was the 1st start for the Plano barn. Drops and should fit, has been cameras shy this year but is well worth a swing at close to the morning line price.

Race 8

2-Mystery Dragon (3-1)-Comes off an efficient win at the straight Open class and now has captured 4 of 12 this year. Looking for a similar trip here by Thayer and the Bertrand barn has posted 30% winners over the last 30 days. Will fade the 7/5 program chalk #5 in this leg.
3-Allmyx'sliventexas (10-1)-Was used hard off the gate last week and tired down the stretch. The previous start was a DH for 1st against Open company and raced near the top of the stack. Willing to toss last and look for a similar trip as the 3-31 win but at a better price.
4-Trey Rockette (6-1)-This Castillo pupil rolled the back half in 55.4 and missed by less than a length versus Open company. Slows starts hurt, but the fractions could be hot and if Irvine gets the 5-year-old into gear sooner he could pop at a nice price.

Race 9

1-Bunkerhill Bill (7/2)-Plano entry has been close but hasn't connected for a win in 7 starts this year. Lands in a nice spot to break the winless streak.
3-Dance Traveler (6-1)-Gets a ++ driver change in James Kennedy. The veteran needs an inside trip and to be close to the leaders to pass them down the lane. This pilot can provide the right steer.
4-Bobs Time (6-1)-Bertrand drove his own last week and dialed up a .56 back half to win at 24-1. Won't be that price tonight but has found another beatable field.

Race 10

2-Doubleontherocks (5/2)-Team Plano entry is 1-39 but this is a soft bunch and probably needs to only beat 1 horse. Small field and having the best pilot should help chances.
3-Marys Pretty Girl (4/5)-This mare has been facing Open company and has only 3 wins in the last 30 starts. Takes a good drop and it should be picture time, but is not a cinch. This gal doesn't like to pass foes down the lane. Goulet should have her on the point and make every call a winning one unless the trip is bumpy.

0.20 Late Pick 4

1,3,6,7/2,3,4/1,3,4/2,3
Total Bet=$14.40

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