Six stakes races, including the Grade 1 $1 million Stephen Foster, crowd the docket Saturday at Ellis Park. The typical Churchill Downs fixtures are spread across the 11-race program that begins at 12:45 pm ET. The American Derby goes as Race 3, the Kelly’s Landing as Race 6, and all leading to an all-stakes late pick 4 in Races 8-11. As for the preliminaries, I’ll give long win looks to the likes of #2 Wadsworth in Race 3 and #1 Fortin Hill in Race 6.

As for the all-stakes pick 4, let’s get to work.

Ellis Park | Race 8 | Grade 2 $400,000 Fleur De Lis Stakes

There’s such little early speed in this race to help the late-running #5 Pauline’s Pearl that you have to take a stand against her while in sub-par form for her talents. #6 A Mo Reay wants to beat you; she’s a dogged competitor. If she gets alongside whoever sets the pace, it’s probably game over. #7 Heartyconstitution probably can make the lead if Tyler Gaffalione can get her back to her Summer ’22 running style, but that’s not a given.

Ellis Park | Race 9 | Grade 2 $400,000 Wise Dan Stakes

#4 Get Smokin’ is elite turf speed and was just unable to hold off #8 Set Piece in the Arlington at Churchill Down over this same distance. The presence of #9 Stitched with some early pressure, and potentially #10 Hozier (from a must-fire early draw), should ratchet up the heat. #2 Tut’s Revenge could flash some early exiting dirt sprints. That scenario makes it highly likely that #8 Set Piece will have even more of a pace target and increases his likelihood of victory in the re-match. Hate to say it, but it looks like a pair of short-priced Brad Cox favorites to start this pick 4. Perhaps 2X course winner #5 Play Action Pass gets a look moving back to Gaffalione and with some pace versatility.

Ellis Park | Race 10 | Grade 1 Stephen Foster Stakes

#5 Smile Happy could not have looked better in winning the Grade 2 Alysheba over a field arguably equal in quality to this one. His pace versatility will come in quite handy in a race where #6 West Will Power will be the target and pressers like #2 Stilleto Boy and #3 Speed Bias are drawn inside West Will Power with the chance to make this difficult. Tons of respect for West Will Power as well as late-runners #1 Proxy and #4 Rattle N Roll, but I’m riding with Smile Happy and going to keep this a very focused ticket. Also look strongly at the daily double with Smile Happy to the picks in the finale, a wager that won’t require you to sweat out two short-priced favorites previously to cash. I’m far more interested in the double than the pick four.

Ellis Park | Race 8 | $225,000 Tepin Stakes

The 3-year-old filly turf milers wrap the card. #4 Wonderful Lady was a miler in France and may have a better kick Saturday than in her two US starts going longer since her arrival. She will need some pace help, but could get it with #3 Heavenly Sunday, who looks solid on paper, likely to get some up front company. #6 Metaphysical was very competitive in the strong Gulfstream winter turf program. Her runner-up at Penn National last time saw Pletcher and Brown trainees in her rearview mirror, so it’s better than it may seem.

The Ticket
6 with 8 with 5 with 4,3,6 = $1.50 for $.50 play