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Frank Caruli: $92K Carryover Pick 5 at Ellis Park Analysis | Friday, August 18, 2023

by Frank Carulli

August 17, 2023

Baytown Chatterbox’s 60-1 upset in last weekend’s Ellis Park Juvenile Stakes stumped Pick 5 players and triggered a $92,036 carryover pool for the 50-cent wager this Friday. But don’t think the sequence will be any easier to solve, with or without another 60-1 winner. Three of the five races drew full, 12-horse fields and another is set to go with 11 starters. Here’s a closer look and a suggested $72 play:

ElP 5th race (2:45 EST) -- MATURITY DATE’s multiple graded stakes-winning sire never raced on turf and her dam was outrun in her lone start on the grass. But trainer Chad Brown’s 21-for-87 record with debut 2-year-old fillies going a route of ground on turf the last three years takes precedent. FANCY LOOKER, even-paced from post 10 in a debut sprint, can use that experience to her advantage in a field with five first-time starters. Her graded stakes-winning dam had seven wire-to-wire victories in 10 starts on the lawn.

ElP 6th race (3:18 EST) -- CHARLOTTE’S APPROVAL, a $1 million sales purchase, shows three :47-and-change gate workouts over the track for her debut. Her dam, Curlin’s Approval, was 9-21, a $654k earner and a Grade II winner at this distance. Trainer Vickie Oliver seeks her fourth MSW winner at Ellis Park in the last 30 days with FLOORED, whose solid work tab at Keeneland mirrors that of the other three winners.

ElP 7th race (3:50 EST) -- SOLID COUNTRY GOLD rallied 4-wide in a pair of shorter grass allowances that produced two winners and six runners-up before he tackled the 1-1/4-mile distance last out. He waited for room at the quarter pole, found it while the top pair were in full flight and finished willingly for third. The margin was a bit deceiving because the favorite was carried out very wide by the runner-up; however, Alglophile, the 2-1 winner, came back to just miss in a blanket finish in a $200k turf stakes. Let’s make SOLID COUNTRY GOLD a solo play in the Pick 5.

ElP 8th race (4:22 EST) -- PUMPKIN SCONE and EVERGRANDE showed good speed and ran second, while SPELTERINI rallied for a pair of runner-up finishes in their most recent starts on the main track. All three hail from top barns and get a spot on the ticket. GATHER went a full second faster than all but three of the 41 horses who worked 4F July 28 at Keeneland, earning the final spot in this MSW sprint.

ElP 9th race (4:55 EST) -- The 12 entrants in the body of this $16,000 maiden claiming route are a combined 35/0-3-1 on turf. Taking little to chance and going nine-deep in the final leg.

Suggested 50-Cent Ticket
ElP 5th Race: 2, 8
ElP 6th Race: 1, 6
ElP 7th Race: 6
ElP 8th Race: 3, 5, 6, 8
ElP 9th Race: 1, 3, 4, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
Cost: $72