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Al Cimaglia: The Red Mile Early Pick 4 Analysis | Sunday, August 20, 2023

by Al Cimaglia

August 20, 2023

The Red Mile has a 13-race matinee card ready to go with a 1:00 PM EST first post. The $1.00 Early Pick 4 starts in Race 6. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a very low 12% takeout.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6 (2:35 PM EST)

5-Longfellow S (3-1)-Has raced from the back in both starts and has no issue going a .56 back half. Sears could land closer to the lead off the gate this time. Looks like a player, and certainly could double up.
6-Vocalize (20-1)-Todd McCarthy takes over for his brother and this Alagna pupil has learned some lesson in the last 2 starts. Raced from the back in his debut and then left aggressively from post 7 and faded. My guess is, a pocket ride behind the one below is not out of the question. Could rally down the lane and pop at a price.
7-Karl (8/5)-This Takter pupil had his way with the last field at M1. Drew off by 6 lengths but went to the 1/2 in a tepid 58.2 and that probably won't happen here. Will respect connections, Yannick Gingras will be headed for the top and the price will be small.

Race 7 (2:54 PM EST)

1-Prideful (7-1)-Will fade #3-Two Pistol Annie (9/5) and look for some value in this leg. Has hit the board in 6 of 7 at The Red Mile and should compete with this crew. Andy Miller could get the 2-hole and use an efficient trip to take a picture.
7-Duchenne (7/2)-This 3-year-old was in with some tough customers this year at Wbsb and PcD. In the 1st race here was driven from the back and came the 2nd half in a lively 54.2 with a 26.2 last quarter. That was a nice debut, short field shouldn't hurt and will look for another big try today.

Race 8 (3:13 PM EST)

1-Samwise The Brave (3-1)-Beaten chalk has been conservatively handled in all 3 races. This is only a 2-year-old learning its lessons. But the teaching point this time could be to race near the top of the stack and that can lead to a win.
2-Six Pack Mack (2-1)-Morning line chalk deserves that status and comes off a very nice effort. Was used a couple of times in a quick mile and faded late. Won't be anywhere near 19-1 but should be a main player and hopefully isn't over bet.
6-JGS Pal (5/2)-Drew off versus this kind in its Lex debut on 7-30 and then broke at the start the following race. Will respect the Linda Toscano-Scott Zeron combo and will look for much better with a flat mile.

Race 9 (3:32 PM EST)

2-Pick Pocket (3-2)-The Stable 2-year-old looks like a good one but not sure the colt is 3/2 worthy. That said, should be in the mix and if improves off the last win in the 2nd time hoppled, there could be more value than appears.
5-Fly By (8-1)-Hoping the morning line price holds true because this could be a chance to get on the engine or in the 2 hole off the gate. Willing to take a swing we will see better from this Chapter 7 colt.
7-Show Me (4-1)-Team Miller entry was able to land on the point with a 28.3 opening quarter but still faded down the lane. My guess is a different trip happens today. Not going to criticize the last performance as much as some. Got on the engine and went to the 3/4's in 1.26 and that took its toll. Not sure anyone in this group would do much better and could be a square price.

$1.00 Early Pick 4

5,6,7/1,7/1,2,6/2,5,7
Total Bet=$54

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