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Al Cimaglia: The Red Mile Pick 4 Analysis | Sunday, August 27, 2023

by Al Cimaglia

August 27, 2023

The Red Mile has an 11-race program ready to begin the week with a first post at 1:00 PM EST. The $1.00 Pick 4 starts in Race 6. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a very low 12% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6 (2:35 PM EST)

1-Better Is Nice (1/1)-Winner of 3 straight, drifted way wide down the lane but still hung on by a neck on 8-15. Will look for an effective equipment change and if so, the win streak could be extended versus the same kind.
3-Tua Many Captains (7-1)-Needed to go first over and hung down the lane but did just miss. Should offer a solid price, and my take is a pocket ride might be in the cards. Could benefit from a suck-around trip and be able to seal the deal.
4-Dancin Champion (9/2)-Rallied down the lane to just miss as #1 drifted out. Tony Hall takes over for Tetrick and that should help the price. Looking for some value and the last effort may have been its best. Could surprise if close enough to the leaders turning for the wire.

Race 7 (2:54 PM EST)

1-Excalibur Bi (2-1)-Faces easier and needs to be put in play early in the mile. That will likely be Andrew McCarthy's plan against this caliber of competition. Has cashed checks versus better and should be a main player but can't completely trust.
7-Sparks Fly (5-1)-Erv Miller pupil was pace compromised in the last race on 8-15. Closed nicely off cover to come a very close second from this same post in its Red Mile debut on 8-7. Needs the right set up but is competitive and could tackle the chalk if the fractions are hot.

Race 8 (3:13 PM EST)

1-Entrench (7/2)-Drew off by over 4 lengths on 8-21 and now faces a bigger challenge. Zeron sticks with the Toscano trainee, drawing the rail shouldn't hurt, and the freshman may have more to give.
2-Lillbliss (8-1)-Brian Sears takes a seat for the first time and that might help. The last race on 8-15 versus this kind was better than the line looked. Will need to show more speed but could get an efficient trip and the price will be right to take a swing.
5-Shock Trooper (9/5)-Broke 3rd off the gate and followed the 2 chalks. Got caught behind the one who was sluggish and finished willingly when able to shake free. Wasn't a match for the winner, but Arson is not in this field. Looks like a player but will probably need to pace faster to win and might be over bet.

Race 9 (3:332 PM EST)

6-Chamba (5/2)-At this class the Ake Svanstedt pupil should be difficult to beat. Looks to have the best overall speed and can leave quick enough to take control early in the mile. Appears to be a cut above the rest, beat this kind easily last time and can double up today.

$1.00 Pick 4

1,3,4/1,7/1,2,5/6
Total Bet=$18

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