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Al Cimaglia: Red Mile Under The Lights Early Pick 4 Analysis | Sunday, September 3, 2023

by Al Cimaglia

September 3, 2023

This is a rare occasion as tonight, The Red Mile will be racing under the lights. The 14-race card starts at 5:50 PM EST. The headliners are 2-year-old Kentucky breds competing in Sires Stakes action. The $1.00 Pick 4 has a low 12% takeout and a $10,000 guaranteed pool. The sequence rolls in Race 6, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6 (7:25 PM EST)

1-Jules Hill (5-1)-If Tyler Smith stays close to the two chalks (3-6) and works a stalking trip good things could happen. It's s short field but will look for an honest pace and that will help down the lane.
6-Every Man Dreams (8/5)-This Burke trainee lost to the program chalk, #2-Direction by a length but this is a revenge opportunity that could go his way. In context that was his 1st start at Lex and was off a couple of weeks. Winner of 2 straight can keep the streak alive with a smooth trip.

Race 7 (7:44 PM EST)

1-In Or Out (8-1)-Twice beaten chalk steps up but raced better last time. Dunn sticks with the Ryder entry #7 but having Tim Tetrick take over won't hurt. Will look for some value as the chalk deserves respect but is not a true standout.
4-Doctrine (3-1)-Has been a bridesmaid in the last 2 starts and should be in the mix. Could top this bunch but at a short price would be tough to swallow.
5-Odds On Live Ball (3-1)-My feeling is the team Wrenn entry will be overlooked and offer a solid price. Broke slowly in last and had to come 1st over. Then hung in the lane and wasn't as good as some others. Didn't quit and did beat #4 the race before. Using and looking for a better trip.
7-Moonlight Miki (8/5)-Did just enough to win as an odds-on chalk and now steps up. Not sure how good this freshman can be. Was still able to get his nose on the wire first, and the trip wasn't the best. Will respect connections but not sure if worthy of strong favoritism.

Race 8 (8:03 PM EST)

1-Flawless (9/5)-Last week Gingras got caught wide into the opening turn and had to work hard before ending up in the pocket. The one below proved to be the best and his trip wasn't great either. Best to respect from the rail but not loving the short price.
5-Fearless Bettor (5/2)-Comes off an impressive win, was behind stalled cover and when shook free, gobbled up ground down the lane to beat the one above. Offers some value and has 3 wins in 4 starts with one 2nd place finish at Lex.

Race 9 (8:22 PM EST)

7-Karl (1-1)-Wasn't fully on board with Karl on 8-20 in his Red Mile debut. Used him on my ticket but wasn't sold he would win at first asking in Kentucky, and that was way off base. Drew off by over 7 lengths to beat 4 from this field in 152.1, which he did all on his own. Doesn't need to lead right off the gate but looks the best unless the trip is very bumpy.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

1,6/1,4,5,7/1,5/7
Total Bet=$16

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