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Jeremy Plonk: Kentucky Downs Today | Sunday, September 10, 2023

by Jeremy Plonk

September 10, 2023

First Post:

1:30 pm ET

Extra Juice:

$10 Money-Back Special on all races. Up to $10 back if your win bet finishes 2nd, 3rd when you play with Xpressbet or 1/ST BET

Featured Races:

Race 9 – $500,000 Juvenile Mile Stakes

Race 10 – $500,000 Juvenile Fillies Stakes

Betmix Stat of the Day:

All 11 races have at least 12 horses entered in each. Since 2018, the average Kentucky Downs winner in a field of 12 or more has been 8-1 odds. By contrast, in fields less than 12 during the same span, the average local winner is 5.8-1 odds. The percentage of winning favorites is 27% vs. 30% when comparing the fields of 12 or more to those 12 or less.

Jeremy’s Best Bets:

Race 4 (3:06 pm ET)

#2 King Curlin (6-1 ML)

Twice runner-up over this course, his effort earlier this meet was rock-solid behind a Pletcher favorite from Saratoga who wired the field with slow fractions. Made multiple runs in that race and was just second-best. I like the quick turn-around after a slow-paced race that wasn’t overly taxing, and note this trainer is 10: 3-1-1 off a week or less rest in recent years.

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Race 5 (3:41 pm ET)

#8 Seisai (6-1 ML)

Irish filly loaded with deep-ground experience never really fit in on the west coast where it’s all top-of-ground racing. Should appreciate change of venues and notice her best California race was the mile at Santa Anita in which she actually got a fair pace to close into. Really like this pairing with rising star jockey Cristian Torres for Cherie Devaux (2 wins, 2 seconds in last 4 tandem bids since August 22).