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Frank Carulli: Churchill Downs Pick 4 Analysis | Friday, September 22, 2023

by Frank Carulli

September 21, 2023

Fueled by 16-1 and 7-1 winners, the Late Pick 4 at Churchill Downs paid $1,892 for a 50-cent wager last Friday. It could be more of the same this week with nine or 10 entries in each leg. Here’s a closer look:

CD 7th race (3:50 P.M. EST) -- Going 4-deep on the ticket in a difficult opening leg with seven first-time starters. TIME SONG raced 4-wide behind the dueling leaders and ‘stayed on’ to finish a distant third, but the debut favorite won the race and it timed 1-3/5 seconds faster than the split division. SWEET AS SIN’S sire ranks in the Top 20 in progeny earnings this year, with 88 winners at an average distance that matches today’s race; his dam has produced 21 percent winners and a 60-percent in-the-money mark. DRAGOON GUARD is firing bullet workouts for the high-percentage Brad Cox barn; however, his dam, Filimbi (7-18, $670k), was multiple Grade I-placed while racing almost exclusively on turf. MILITARY CRUISER gets a spot on the ticket at 20-1 off a :47.2 gate work September 6. His sire, Catalina Cruiser, was 3-for-3 in Grade II stakes in long sprints. OTTO THE CONQUERER finished a game second in his 7F debut at Ellis Park, but save for winner Liberal Arts – stakes placed in his next start – the race produced a 7/0-0-1 follow-up slate with an average 46 Beyer.

CD 8th race (4:22 P.M. EST) -- GILCREASE was in range of the leaders but tired in the stretch at one mile. He returns to a preferred distance and is a must use at 8-1 on the morning line after the race yielded a stakes winner, two stakes-placed routers and an allowance victor. MULLIKIN deserves another chance after he ‘missed the break’ by at least a length, raced 5-wide most of the way and gave way in the stretch as the odds-on favorite.

CD 9th race (4:55 P.M. EST) -- ARABIAN PRINCE closed with a rush to miss in a photo-finish the last time he ran 5-1/2F. He deserves a long look in here, but at 0-13 on turf and winless the last two years, the safer play is to go deep in this wide open turf sprint with more than half the field arriving from different tracks.

CD 10th race (5:26 P.M. EST) -- SISTER MAHA set the early pace, vied inside on the turn and gave way as the favorite at 7F. She finished between two next-out MSW winners and behind an allowance runner-up. She tired again after she broke inward at the start and set the pace in a useful one-mile turf test last out. METHODOLOGY, forced out by inner rivals at the start, recovered with a ‘sustained stride’ to finish second to the odds-on pace setter at this distance.

Suggested 50-Cent Ticket
CD 7th Race: 2, 4, 5, 6
CD 8th Race: 3, 8
CD 9th Race: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
CD 10th Race: 6, 8
Cost: $64