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Al Cimaglia: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis | Friday, December 8, 2023

by Al Cimaglia

December 8, 2023

Cal Expo has a compact 8-race card with the 0.20 Pick 4 starting in Race 5. The sequence has a $20,000 guaranteed pool with a 16% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 5 (8:25 PM PST)

1-Senga Nightmare (12-1)-Did the heavy lifting last time and raced big to finish 2nd. That was the 1st start at this class after a win against cheaper. Offers more value than others and could cash the top check if steps up off the last start.
3-Starzznstripes (6-1)-This mare raced well and finished behind the one above. Not sure why she earns a 6-1 morning line, and my thinking is the price will be better. Willing to use some price shots in this leg and this gal should be racing near the top of the stack.
6-Changing Colors (10-1)-Beat this kind 2 back which was the 1st start of the meet. Then moved up to face Open mares and was in too tough. Versatile mare who has gate speed and could race with the leaders or come off cover. Either way, should be a threat.
8-Halleysbigcomet (6-1)-Steps up after winning handily in the 1st start on Lasix and that was her CalX debut. Interesting race with the program chalk #9 at 4-1. Will use this Hawthorne shipper off the last effort and could be even better with a start on this surface.

Race 6 (8:45 PM PST)

3-Heavens Gona Rock (7/2)-Didn't get a smooth trip and still came 2nd. Got a similar trip in the race before and was 2nd again. Has hit the board in all 3 CalX starts and has taken 1 picture. Moves in a couple of spots and could benefit from a better drive.
5-Rock's Image (2-1)-This was the odds-on chalk in the last 3 races but has rewarded his backers with only 1 win. Gerry Longo owns, trains and drives. The 4-year-old could pick up another win if takes control and the fractions are more friendly than last week.

Race 7 (9:05 PM PST)

2-Pecorino (15-1)-Mark Kennedy doesn't win many races and this veteran is only 1-31 this year. Considering the negatives, the 8-year-old was very game down the stretch last week. Got the top off the gate, which is not typical, this time could get a pocket ride and have more left down the lane.
7-Gee Wilikers (5/2)-Was used hard into a 55.2 half and faded down the lane to finish a beaten 2nd. Will look for a smoother journey in the 2nd start in town and will be a much better price than 1/9.

Race 8 (9:25 PM PST)

4-Biggiessecondshot (3-1)-This will be the 2nd race since the beginning of June and lands in a soft spot. The Johnson barn has been clicking, James Kennedy gets the call and will look for a big try.
5-Bekkums Fancy Start (5/2)-The last 2 starts have been dull, and they followed a win in the 1st CalX race this year. Drops to a better spot, similar to the level of her 11-17 win. Does good work here winning 6 of 16 and will look for a bounce back effort tonight.

0.20 Pick 4

1,3,6,8/3,5/2,7/4,5
Total Bet=$6.40

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