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Al Cimaglia: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis | Friday, December 15, 2023

by Al Cimaglia

December 15, 2023

Cal Expo has a 10-race card with the 0.20 Pick 4 starting in Race 7. The sequence has a $20,000 guaranteed pool with a 16% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 7 (8:45 PM PST)

8-Body Armor (3-1)-Will need its best to win but this 4-year-old likes taking pictures (33-10-8-4). Has been the beaten chalk in the last 2 races coming 2nd to Mandeville, 2 back broke stride at the start. Has the ability but needs to land in a close-up seat without being used up. Could get amends with a smooth trip.
9-Mandeville (5/2)-Looking for 3 straight and beat this kind from the 9-hole despite working to get the top. The race probably will go through this veteran.

Race 8 (9:05 PM PST)

2-Sherwood (7/5)-Tried to go gate to wire after working to get the top in the 1st race since 4-22. Faded down the lane to finish a well-beaten 2nd. Should be tighter, comes right back versus the same kind at a track he's done good work (24-6-10-2).
8-Cal's Hope (10-1)-Hasn't raced since April 30th and qualified with Svendsen on 12-10. The tune-up was fine, but not sure good enough to win coming off the bench. But is worth a play and could go off at a larger price than the morning line.

Race 9 (9:25 PM PST)

2-Regil Irish (3-1)-Drops and lands at a more competitive level. Starts inside and Svendsen could work a suck-around trip. This 3-year-old filly may have met a beatable field even though she will take on mares.
3-Witch Hunter (8-1)-This mare has only 1 win in 29 starts at CalX but kept coming last time in a race with some quick fractions. Should be a large price and could win with the right set up. Should also be worth using in gimmicks.
4-Biggiessecondshot (9/5)-This is the 3rd start since 6-6. Stayed inside last week, could not gain ground down the lane
and finished 3rd almost 6 lengths back. Not loving the short price but has back class, so will hold my nose and use but hope for others with some value.

Race 10 (9:45 PM PST)

2-Brooklyn Wind Up (6-1)-Comes back against the same kind after winning on 12-10. Not feeling the 6-1 morning line but is a logical player again.
3-Outlawburntpopcorn (5-1)-Here is another that comes right back after a nice effort. Should be a main player but the issue is what type of steer will be coming. Pacheco is a Provisional driver who is aggressive but sometimes forces his hand. Could win with a patient drive.

0.20 Pick 4

8,9/2,8/2,3,4/2,3
Total Bet=$4.80

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