by 1/ST BET
January 11, 2024
Charles Town has a $21,758 pick 5 carryover that will be offered on Thursday’s final five races. The opening event is slated for 8:25 pm ET in Race 4.
To assist your handicapping, selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections.
You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer. Full-card selections can be found in the 1/ST BET app.
Charles Town // Race 4 // maiden claiming
#3 Princess Margaret (1-5 ML) / 25% Win Projection
#1 Lime Star (5-1 ML) / 18% Win Projection
#5 Palacio (6-1 ML) / 15% Win Projection
#6 Vieste (20-1 ML) / 14% Win Projection
#7 Flattering Way (20-1 ML) / 12% Win Projection
Comments: Massive 1-5 morning line favorite #3 Princess Margaret looks to be in a classic single-or-spread situation. The top Win Projection has a decent 7-point edge and there four runners are clumped right below the top. Beating this one obviously juices up the payout. The class drop for Princess Margaret would seem too much for the others, but anchoring everything on an 0-4 maiden dropping to the bottom level doesn’t harden confidence.
Charles Town // Race 5 // claiming
#1 Violent Rock (2-1 ML) / 25% Win Projection
#4 Huey Duey (8-1 ML) / 18% Win Projection
Comments: The 9-5 morning line favorite #3 Runaway Road gets a 14% Win Projection and might be a good chance to separate from the public by trying to beat this one. Similar to Race 1, it’s a reasonable discussion singling #1 Violent Rock based on the numbers. But that one is 0-7 at Charles Town lifetime, so reinforcement comes from #4 Huey Duey, whose early speed has wired a couple of local dashes.
Charles Town // Race 6 // maiden special weight
#1 Love Is Wicked (9-5 ML) / 27% Win Projection
Comments: The 9-point gap between the morning line favorite here and the rest is largest so far in the sequence. If looking to add runners, #3 Break the Chains (18%) and #2 Destin’s Rainbow (14%), are next in line, but are the second and third choice in the morning line and don’t add a lot of value. Uneasiness singling a horse for a barn that went 1-for-49 in 2023 is real.
Charles Town // Race 7 // allowance
#8 CR’s Mandate (4-1 ML) / 25% Win Projection
#6 Urgent Fury (10-1 ML) / 16% Win Projection
#3 No Love For Juba (7-2 ML) / 16% Win Projection
Comments: The morning line favorite #1 Time the Avenger goes for high-percentage connections that are sure to take money, but nets only a 7% Win Projection and will be stretching out to 1-1/16 miles off only 3 career sprints. Taking a trio of shots to beat that one doesn’t look like a bad move if the numbers are correct.
Charles Town // Race 8 // maiden special weight
#1 Theta (3-5 ML) / 26% Win Projection
#5 SS Casino Girl (4-1 ML) / 21% Win Projection
Comments: Two-horse affair between the morning line chalks, according to the algorithm, with only one other contender reaching a double-digit Win Projection - #3 Our Brew at 13%. Adding that one in at 10-1 ML odds may be a stretch and increases the cost of the ticket by 33% overall. #1 Theta is rail speed in this dash, but failed to hold her speed last time at .30-to-1 odds.