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Jeremy Plonk: $132K Carryover Tampa Pick 6 Analysis | Sunday, February 11, 2024

by Jeremy Plonk

February 11, 2024

Tampa Bay Downs features a $132,917 carryover and mandatory payout in its 20-cent base pick 6 on Sunday. It begins in Race 4 with a scheduled start time of 2:15 pm ET with track officials predicting $500,000 in the pool.

Tampa Bay Downs // Race 4 // maiden
Comments: Scratch of #8 Akayla is important and leaves only a field of seven. Expect rookie stablemate #6 Risk Magic to be well-intended for Chad Brown along with #2 Lucky Combination bred for turf and getting that chance after three tries.

Tampa Bay Downs // Race 5 // maiden claiming
Comments: Big field of 11 maiden claimers on turf may not elicit confidence in many players, but #7 King Miano has no excuse not to handle this bunch and could be a single that offers more value than playing the favorite typically suggests. Looks like a race many will spread deep on to inevitably get that frustrating favorite anyone. #1 Muntaliq at 12-1 ML has the next-most appeal. Save combos here.

Tampa Bay Downs // Race 6 // starter optional claiming
Comments: #8 Sassy Charlee looks like a legit favorite with speed and drawn nicely on the outside of this 8-horse field. She’s won 5 straight at Tampa and no reason to knock her at this level. The other pace pressure comes from #5 Li’l Miss Camille and #6 The Sweaty Fox, so if you’re going to beat Sassy Charlee, it’s probably going to come from a pace meltdown and a late-running closer. #3 Playera interests in that role and makes it a two-deep for me.

Tampa Bay Downs // Race 7 // claiming
Comments: Scratch the also-eligibles and that leaves a field of 10 in this non-winners of 2 lifetime claimer. Six of them have become lifers of sorts with 10 or more career starts and still trying to eclipse this first condition. #6 Callas, #7 Lastchancechancey and #9 Verifiable provide the most appeal among the lightly raced group. Include #2 Cloudy Bay, the morning line chalk, on the class drop and fact that his $50,000 maiden claiming score at Gulfstream 15 months ago stacks up strongest here.

Tampa Bay Downs // Race 8 // claiming
Comments: This big field of bottom-level claimers may feel like a spread situation on paper, but #2 Sweeping Giant may be the strongest favorite in the entire pick six. He missed by a neck in a similar spot last time at Tampa, changes barn to high-percentage Jose D’Angelo and stands out on speed figures. If he’s to be upset, it would likely come from a loose runner up front, making #10 Sandy Lane Kitten with early speed and the class drop the most likely candidate to do so.

Tampa Bay Downs // Race 9 // claiming
Comments: A dozen non-winners of 3 lifetime are slated to compete over 1-1/16 miles on turf. #1 EM’s Treasuregirl aims for three straight wins for a high percentage jockey-trainer tandem and is advantaged from the rail coming out of the infield chute. But there are good options in this race and worthy of a spread – I prefer spreading in races with good options vs. those races where everything looks poor and you’re just hoping to land the right one. Include #2 Except Temptation, #5 Siever, #7 Diosa Catrina, #8 French Franc, #9 Carmel Sunrise, #10 Little Gia, #11 Pasta Salad Rhonda, #12 New Ways to Dream.

The Ticket
6,2 with 7 with 8,3 with 6,7,9,2 with 2 with 1,2,5,7,8,9,10,11,12 = $28.80 for $0.20