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Al Cimaglia: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis | Sunday, February 18, 2024

by Al Cimaglia

February 18, 2024

Cal Expo has a 12-race card with the 0.20 Pick 4 starting in Race 9. The sequence has a $25,000 guaranteed pool with a 16% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 9 (7:30 PM PST)

2-Wish I Had Thyme (3-1)-Drops after a slow start from post 7. Rallied down the lane versus better and beat that kind in the previous race. Gerry Longo, the regular pilot is back in the bike and should be a main player at this level.
5-Rockin The Dragon (12-1)-Team Kennedy entry probably was pace compromised in last when Luke Plano was steering. James is in charge tonight, and this lightly raced mare has a shot to surprise at a price with an efficient trip.
6-Bold New Beginning (6-1)-Like #2, this gal takes a meaningful drop. Nick Roland gets the nod, and he has steered before. Willing to toss the last start and should be forwardly placed throughout.
7-Nebble Hanover (10-1)-Comes out of the same race as the one above and that night speed didn't hold well. This is another price shot who drops and knows how to win here (14-7-1-0). Could be sitting on a big try in the 4th race since mid-July.

Race 10 (7:50 PM PST)

2-Sherwood (5-1)-Tried hard from the 7-hole in last but needs a smooth journey to win. This 8-year-old has a nose for the wire at CalX (32-8-11-4). Kennedy could work a suck-around trip for a picture.
3-Myartblongstorock (4-1)-Jacob Cutting gets the call and he has done well with this 5-year-old. Raced against the bias in last and will look for a different trip tonight. Wouldn't want to take a short price with the 1-15 record at CalX but should be a player.
5-Aime Hanover (12-1)-This will be the 5th start on Lasix and hasn't posted a win at the meet. The last line was better than it looks and could pop at a big number if Rene Goulet provides a sharp drive.

Race 11 (8:10 PM PST)

1-Cut A Rug (4-1)-Plano steers, his choice over #6, and he usually gets the most out of this 7-year-old who needs the right set-up to win. Drawing the rail should help and hopefully won't be over bet.
2-Daniel's Son (5/2)-Drops to a soft spot and Cutting gets the assignment. Should get an efficient trip and this race probably goes through the 5-year-old.

Race 12 (8:30 PM PST)

2-Powderhouse (5/2)-Plano has 2 entries (2-8) in the race and he isn't driving either so Lemoyne Svendsen gets the call. Has been in good form and now drops to the level of its last win which came 3 back. This is a logical choice and will probably be bet hard.
6-Helen's Girl (3-1)-Snagged 4 straight wins and its form has tailed off in the last 3 starts. Drops and beat better than this 4 back and could return to winning ways here. Will respect chances as this was Cutting's pick over #3 & #5.

0.20 Pick 4

2,5,6,7/2,3,5/1,2/2,6
Total Bet=$9.60

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