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Al Cimaglia: Cal Expo Late Pick 4 Analysis | Friday, March 8, 2024

by Al Cimaglia

March 8, 2024

Cal Expo begins the weekend with a 10-race card. The 0.20 Pick 4 starts in Race 7. The sequence has a $25,000 guaranteed pool with a 16% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 7 (8:45 PM PST)

1-Midnight Zen (3-1)-Comes off a sharp score from the 7-hole, eventually got the top and didn't look back. Does bump up but will respect the last effort, using as Luke Plano takes the lines and draws the rail.
2-Bekkums Fancy Star (2-1)-This mare is not close to as good as last year when she won 10 of 34 starts. This was Jacob Cutting's choice over the 1-7-8 and will use but can't fully trust.

Race 8 (9:05 PM PST)

1-Outlawnothnbutsmrt (5-1)-Takes a meaningful drop, should benefit with this post, and can offer a square price. Renee Goulet needs to keep his trainee in striking range and can roll by foes late in the mile.
4-Dougsmonkeybusiness (2-1)-After banking over $100k last year and winning 10 of 26 this 4-year-old seems to have lost its will to win. Difficult to leave off the ticket but it's best to also consider others with more value.
6-El's Disco Johnny (4-1)-Wired the TMR<72 and won easily only to be DQ'D for a pylon violation. Will look for another big effort although faces a bit tougher but should be better than 9/5 tonight.

Race 9 (9:25 PM PST)

1-Ak Up N Attem (6-1)-The 1-26 record at CalX is cause for pause. But comes off two 2nd place finishes and Lemoyne Svendsen will steer for his 3rd straight. May have met a beatable field and could take its 1st picture this year.
2-Powderhouse (3-1)-The Plano trainee also needs to do a bit more to seal the deal. But should be closer to the leader at the top of the lane and if so, could be right there at the wire.
6-Go Viral (9/2)-Willing to toss the last start on a sloppy track, hasn't won in 6 tries on a wet surface. A return to previous form puts this one in the mix in a race without a standout.

Race 10 (9:45 PM PST)

1-Watchmeneighneigh (7/2)-Drops down to the level of a win 2 back. Wired the field on 2-25 with Svendsen between the pipes. This probably won't be as easy as Brett Erickson gets the nod but should be in line for a cozy trip.
3-Changing Colors (2-1)-Svendsen sticks with the Plested trainee, and this mare should relish the company. Has beaten better than this 3 back and the race probably goes through this gal.

0.20 Pick 4

1,2/1,4,6/1,2,6/1,3
Total Bet=$7.20

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