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Jeremy Plonk: Keeneland Exacta-Thon Plays | Saturday, April 6, 2024

by Jeremy Plonk

April 4, 2024

The $25,000 Exacta-Thon from 1/ST BET and Xpressbet continues Saturday for opening weekend at Keeneland. Hit exactas … win more money than other players. It’s that simple.

As you play Saturday’s 11-race card that features the Blue Grass among 5 stakes, give extra consideration to exacta bets. That’s because players at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet who cash any exacta combination in at least 6 of the 11 Keeneland races on Saturday will share in an additional $20,000 in free cash. The player(s) who hit the most exactas on the day will be rewarded with their share of an additional $5,000.

Be sure to register for the promotion and note Exacta-Thon plays are a $2 base minimum to qualify for the contest.

Keeneland // Race 1

Notable: Favorites are exceptionally strong in these maiden dirt routes at Keeneland and with a field of 8, don’t recommend burning too many combinations. Regally bred #7 Batten Down (by Tapit out of Close Hatches) looks poised to graduate as the first or second public choice.

JP’s Exacta-Thon Plays:
Part-Wheel 7 with 5,3,8 ($6)

Keeneland // Race 2

Notable: Standing against the short-priced favorite #4 Scatify since he’s entered at a class and distance that concedes some failure in Southern California. #2 Billal comes out of a very productive edition of the Swale at Gulfstream.

JP’s Exacta-Thon Plays:
Key-Box 2 with 6,7 ($8)

Keeneland // Race 3

Notable: #6 Discreet Mischief will be one of the strongest favorites on the card for Brad Cox after a debut second behind stakes-caliber sophomore sprinter Drip. Several good options exist underneath. While using too many isn’t great wagering value, it can be effective for ticking 1 of your 6 needed Exacta-Thon successes.

JP’s Exacta-Thon Plays:
Part-Wheel 6 with 5,8,12,3 ($8)

Keeneland // Race 4

Notable: Only 7 runners in this sprint and don’t have a strong feel. #5 Bridleuptothebar will be a big price (15-1 ML) and could take them a long way up front if he breaks alertly.

JP’s Exacta-Thon Plays:
Key-Box 5 with 1,4 ($8)

Keeneland // Race 5

Notable: Wide-open affair in a race classification and trip that historically produces the most chaos at Keeneland. Could box 5 here and still not get it while overspending, so I’ll focus on #11 Tapakena coming out of better races than the others. Find out if he likes turf Saturday, but damside pedigree hints he might.

JP’s Exacta-Thon Plays:
Part-Wheel 11 with 3,2,9,7,10 ($10)

Keeneland // Race 6 // Commonwealth Stakes

Notable: #7 Here Mi Song rallied to win this Commonwealth Stakes a year ago at 11-1 odds and can be effective coming out of a similar Turfway prep in his latest form cycle. Logical players make sense around him, so can’t overdo the combinations and expect a cost-effective return.

JP’s Exacta-Thon Plays:
Part-Wheel 7 with 4,2,9 ($6)

Keeneland // Race 7 // Appalachian Stakes

Notable: Trainer Mark Casse has had a ton of success in this stakes over the years and has #10 Pouce and #3 Dancing N Dixie as prime chances. #1 Poolside With Slim showed a world of talent before disappointing last time; may bounce back.

JP’s Exacta-Thon Plays:
Box 10-3-1 ($12)

Keeneland // Race 8 // Madison Stakes

Notable: Last Fall, #8 Vahva and #6 Alva Starr ran 1-2 in the Raven Run Stakes as 3-year-olds and now come back against an elder cast with a real chance to do it again. #2 Red Carpet Ready merits respect off her 2024 return. Rather chalky result looming, but a chance to pick off an Exacta-Thon contest winner without getting too deep.

JP’s Exacta-Thon Plays:
Part-Wheel 8,6 with 8,6,2 ($8)

Keeneland // Race 9 // Shakertown Stakes

Notable: Posts 3-4-5 have been statistically strong in Keeneland turf sprints with full fields of 12 like this over the years, and I’ll hang my hat with those – who are all legitimate players on paper in this tough race. #3 Mischief Magic was a Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner over this course in 2022, #4 Beer Can Man finished third in the Fall Meet’s Woodford from a terrible draw that day; #5 Bad Beat Brian lived up to his name when second by a head at 40-1 odds in this very race last April.

JP’s Exacta-Thon Plays:
Box 3-4-5 ($12)

Keeneland // Race 10 // Blue Grass Stakes

Notable: #10 Sierra Leone proved to be one of the tops of this Kentucky Derby prep season when winning the deep Risen Star at Fair Grounds. He’s trained well since and is showing why they shelled out $2.3 million for him. His closing style doesn’t always play well in this race or at Keeneland, but the race looks completely wide open if you open it up beyond his obvious talent.

JP’s Exacta-Thon Plays:
Part-Wheel 10 with 11,4,5,6,8 ($10)

Keeneland // Race 11

Notable: Contest players will know where you stand in terms of trying to reach the Exacta-Thon threshold of 6 wins, and can adjust accordingly in strategy for the finale. I don’t see this as a particularly competitive affair in that #5 Master Piece and #3 Running Bee stand out and should be short prices. Not the kind of play that interests me, intra-race, but it serves a contest purpose.

JP’s Exacta-Thon Plays:
Box 5-3 ($4)