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Al Cimaglia: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis | Friday, May 3, 2024

by Al Cimaglia

May 3, 2024

It's closing night at Cal Expo and there will be mandatory payouts in all pools. The 0.20 Pick 4 starts in Race 10. The sequence has a $25,000 guaranteed pool with a 16% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 10 (9:00 PM PST)

6-JP Jetty (8/5)-Short price for a horse that doesn't do well taking air but has enough gate speed to get the top or the 2-hole. Does have some tactical speed that could make a winning difference.
8-Trey Rockette (8-1)-Loses Luke Plano to the one above but if anyone is going to catch the speed this is my choice. Brett Erickson needs to be close enough to the lead at the top of the lane and an honest pace. Both could happen at a price.

Race 11 (9:20 PM PST)

2-Regil Irish (3-1)-This is the 3rd start off the bench, gets post relief and a positive driver change in Plano. It could be "go" time on the final day of the meet.
9-The Last Waltz (6-1)-The Cutting-Goulet combo has posted 33% winners. The 4-year-old will be rolling rate and could be a smooth trip away from a picture. The post makes the price and it's best to respect.

Race 12 (9:40 PM PST)

2-Helen's Girl (4-1)-This is Plano's choice over #3. The same pilot won with the Alvarez trainee on 4-21 and should fit well with this group.
4-Eyes Don't Lie (7/2)-Team Stalbaum entry does try hard and is a player with a good steer. Has won versus this kind and should be in striking range to roll by down the lane.
6-Velocity McSweets (8/5)-Veteran mare is a leap of faith at a short price. Showed some gate speed in last and faded. Will look for a different trip and may finally seal the deal.

Race 13 (10:00 PM PST)

1-Cut A Rug (5/2)-This was James Kennedy choice over #5 and figures to be in the hunt. Faded after trying to wire the field last time. Could be better not trying to lead from gate to wire and that trip could happen tonight.
4-Rockinscience (3-1)-The last time the team Cutting entry was in this cheap it was picture time. Hasn't taken a picture since 3-1 and could connect again at this level.

$1.00 Pick 4

6,8/2,9/2,4,6/1,4
Total Bet=$24

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