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December 29: Cal Expo $30K Guaranteed Pick 4 Ticket + Analysis

by Al Cimaglia

December 29, 2017

The feature at Cal Expo this evening rolls in Race 7, a Fillies and Mares Open Pace with a $6,600 purse. The 0.20 Pick 4 begins in Race 8 and has a $30,000 guaranteed pool with a 16% takeout.

The Pick 4 is an interesting sequence as many horses are coming back quickly after racing on Tuesday night. My strategy will be to spread out in the opening two legs hoping to get a price and then play the last two races to be more formful.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 8
1-Barbosa-Still winless in Cali, program chalk has had trouble sealing the deal but this isn't a strong field.
2-Richellu Cowboy-Toss last on Tuesday night, looking for a price and from the inside will take a swing.
3-Fire On The Water-Similar to #3 and will use versus this field and look to beat favorites.
4-Regina Beach-Last was better when back on Lasix and should be in the hunt at a square price.

Race 9
4-Back Stock-Been coming close and at 10-1 this is another leg to look for a price.
5-Nighttraintovegas-Takes a meaningful drop out of Open company, will use ML chalk but will try to beat.
6-Fire Dance-Raced gamely in last at 22-1 and will use at long odds tonight.
7-Perfect Pitch-Svendsen's choice is looking for 6th win of year and is another price shot worth a swing.
10-La Madawna De Rosa-Goulet needs to work a trip and get in striking range, can roll late at long odds.

Race 10
5-Art Genta-Co-morning line favorite will be tough to beat with best shot.
6-Baylor Out-Other 5/2 favorite should be sitting 1st or 2nd at top of lane and be battling #5 for top honors.

Race 11
2-Lovers Holiday-Beat #7 on Tuesday and off that effort will use at 8-1 ML odds tonight.
7-Nutmegs Desire-Even effort on 12/26 at 3/2, should be a threat if comes with best effort.
10-Pa's Corn Squeezin-Post could make it interesting but ML favorite with Plano is in fine form.

0.20 Pick 4
Total Bet=$24

Check me out on Twitter, @AlCimaglia.