Log In

Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis | Sunday, July 7, 2024

by Al Cimaglia

July 7, 2024

Northfield Park begins the week with a 15-race card. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a 14% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Race 11 (9:40 PM EST)

7-Liteningonthebeach (2-1)-Aaron Merriman steers for the Bercury barn and this combo has posted 27% winners. Bumps up but this is not a field full of proven winners at this level. Won last at the Mea with the same pilot in the bike and tried a different plan. Rolled home with a 54.1 back half, and Merriman has good gate speed to use or could look for a covered trip.
8-Saulsbrook Genesis (5/2)-Ronnie Wrenn gets the nod and the Burke veteran has shown the ability to beat straight Open company. That's the good news, the not so good part is the one above has a better chance of getting on the point off the gate. It won't be easy, but the price could be better than the morning line and has the ability to grind it out with an honest pace.

Race 12 (10:02 PM EST)

1-Winning Shadow (5/2)-This 9-year-old got his way on the front end in last and now takes a double bump up. Normally would shy away but the veteran can win at this level, especially against this field. Best to respect, a cozy trip is probably coming. Did bank >$130k in 2023 and has won 35% of its Nfld races.
3-Dudley (6-1)-Bumps up after winning on a sloppy track. Could be overlooked, and might surprise with a sharp drive. Does good work at Nfld (7-2-1-1).
5-Kandy Sweet (7/2)-Drops after a decent try versus better and Billy Davis Jr sticks. The trip will be key, and could be driven aggressively. Might have the gate speed to land on the point, and could seal the deal with a well-rated mile.
6-Doc's Spirit (20-1)-Willing to take a swing for a large price as this Scott Cox entry ships in from the Meadows. Does good work here and has shown the ability this spring at Nfld to beat better than this crew. Ryan Stahl needs a live cover flow and to push the button at the right time.

Race 13 (10:24 PM EST)

2-Buy In (5/2)-Ships back from Scioto after racing over its head there. Posted its last win against this kind here on May 5. Ken Holiday will probably look to get on the engine and could be tough to tackle.
3-Pitt Panda (7/2)-Has only 1 win in 11 starts this year. Fits with this bunch and could benefit from a dry track. Two of the last 3 starts were on a sloppy track and has only 1 win in 10 races on a wet surface. Billy Davis Jr could leave, get a cozy pocket ride and post a trip-out win.

Race 14 (10:46 PM EST)

5-Elite Machine (7/2)-Gets some post relief and has good gate speed. Billy Davis Jr should have the pedal down. Could go gate to wire if it doesn't work too hard to get on the point.
6-Melodies Major (6-1)-Drops to a more competitive spot and shouldn't blush at the competition. Hunter Myers needs to provide a smooth trip and can start well enough to get a close-up seat. The price should be right to use, on top and in gimmicks.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

7,8/1,3,5,6/2,3/5,6
Total Bet=$32

Check me out on Twitter!