by Jeremy Plonk
July 30, 2024
Key Races
Friday | Real Good Deal Stakes (Cal-bred 3yo sprint)
Saturday | G1 Clement Hirsch (f/m route), California Dreamin’ Stakes (Cal-bred turf)
Sunday | La Jolla (3yo turf route), CTBA (Cal-bred, 2yo f)
Horsepower
Friday: ’23 G3 Daytona winner Fast Buck & ’23 Jim McKay Turf Sprint winner Beer Can Man (R1 ALW); ’24 G3 UAE Oaks runner-up Mizzyan (R4 MSW); ’24 Echo Eddie/Snow Chief winner Shady Tiger (R6 Real Good Deal Stakes).
Saturday: ’23 G1 Clement Hirsch winner Adare Manor expected for title defense (Clement Hirsch draws Wed.)
Sunday: ’24 G3 Jeff Ruby winner Endlessly probable for La Jolla (draws Thurs)
Extra Incentives
Saturday | $10K-added Fun in the Sun Handicapping Tournament | last 5 races Saratoga, first 5 races Del Mar
Tracking the Trends
-- Favorites were a woeful 9 of 38 last week (24%) and now 20 of 60 for the meeting (33%).
-- Jockey Hector Berrios had a monster week with 4 wins (42%, + ROI), including his seat aboard The Chosen Vron in the Grade 1 Bing Crosby. Kazushi Kimura Kyle Frey also had 4-win weeks with a flat-bet profit.
-- Tim Yakteen (3 wins, 25%, + ROI) and Craig Dollase (3 wins, 60%, + ROI) topped all trainers last week at Del Mar as Bob Baffert struggled through a 1 of 10 week included 7 favorites (6 losing).
-- Horses who made their most recent start outside of California are 3 for 37 (8%, $0.26 ROI for every $1 bet) through the first 2 weeks of the Del Mar meet. Two of the 3 wins came in turf stakes.
-- Jockey Juan Hernandez has ridden 19 favorites at the meet (winning 8, 42%), while no other ride has more than 8 favored mounts.