by Jeremy Plonk
August 6, 2024
Key Races
Friday | Graduation Stakes (Cal-bred 2yo sprint)
Saturday | G2 Yellow Ribbon (f/m turf route), G3 Sorrento (2yo filly sprint)
Sunday | G3 Best Pal (2yo sprint)
Horsepower
Friday: Everett Nevin Stakes 2-3 finishers R Heisman and Timty (R7 Graduation Stakes).
Saturday: G1 Del Mar Oaks & G1 Gamely winner Anisette (probable for G2 Yellow Ribbon, draws Wed); Debutante Stakes winner Vodka With a Twist, Prairie Gold Juvenile winner White Sands (probable for G3 Sorrento, draws Wed.)
Sunday: Impressive Del Mar debut winner Getaway Car (possible for G3 Best Pal, draws Thurs)
Extra Incentives
Saturday | $10K-added Fun in the Sun Handicapping Tournament | last 5 races Saratoga, first 5 races Del Mar
Tracking the Trends
-- Favorites underperformed last week at 11 for 38 (29%) after a week 24% showing the prior week.
-- Jockey Juan Hernandez dominated the riders with 7 wins (33%, + ROI) and was 4-for-9 aboard favorites. Reylu Gutierrez had a solid, 3-win week (21%, + ROI), while Kyle Frey slumped through a 1-for-29 week.
-- Trainer John Sadler exits a huge week at 10: 4-2-2 and flashing a $2.11 ROI for every $1 bet. Six trainers were next up with 2 wins on the week, notably Antonio Garcia (33%, + ROI), Jeff Mullins (29%, + ROI) and Tim McCanna (67%, + ROI).
-- First-time starters bet to favoritism are 8: 4-2-0 at the current meet. Also note that 4 of the 9 first-time starters to win races at the meet have been 8-1 odds or more.
-- Trainer Phil D’Amato’s barn has struggled mightily on turf at the current meet, going 4-for-45 (9% wins, 24% in-the-money, $0.36 ROI for every $1 bet).