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Al Cimaglia: The Red Mile Early Pick 4 Analysis | Sunday, August 11, 2024

by Al Cimaglia

August 11, 2024

The Red Mile has an 18-race card with the $1.00 Early Pick 4 starting in Race 6. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a very low 12% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6 (6:40 Pm EST)

1-Duration (5-1)-Will toss last, had no shot racing from the back into a slow opening half of .58, but did close in 54.2 with a 26.3 last panel. Could be overlooked at the windows and has more to offer. Needs an efficient trip to take a picture and is in a spot to get one.
2-Looksgoodinloulou (6/5)-Caught a jewel of a trip but exploded down the lane and looked strong crossing the wire. The Burke pupil put in a 25.3 last panel and basically, that was for fun. This race goes through Yanick Gingras who is steering the son of Sweet Lou. Appears to have an edge over the field and a perfect 2 for 2 record is a distinct possibility.

Race 7 (6:59 PM EST)

3-Santa Croce (8-1)-Todd McCarthy should get a seat off the gate and with an effective stalking trip could roll by down the lane. Willing to look for prices in a race without a standout.
5-Calatrava (10-1)-The Takter trainee hasn't faced the same level of competition until the last start. Took command in that race and faded down the lane to finish 5th. Scott Zeron takes the lines and this driver-trainer combo posts 27% winners when they team up. The price is right to use and my take is tonight this filly stays close and then comes off cover.
6-Drawing Rights (7/2)-Dexter Dunn was able to get the filly over the line by a nose versus this kind on 7-30. Will probably be bet down in its 2nd Lex appearance but will respect connections and not let the Ryder pupil bust up the ticket.

Race 8 (7:18 PM EST)

4-Rose (1/1)-Went off at 1/2 in last and drew off by 4 lengths with a 25.4 last panel. Beat 4 from this field on 6-30 and Gingras will have in striking range to win again at odds-on.
7-Faze (7/2)-Left from post 8 and took the long way around in the same race as #4. Cashed a 4th place check, will get some play as Dexter Dunn is in the bike. But will use figuring the price will be fair and should be better with a race over the oval.

Race 9 (7:37 PM EST)

1-Sunny E (2-1)-Going to fade Tim Tetrick on #4 the 3/2 morning line chalk and use Scott Zeron on the rail. Hopefully won't be bet hard and looked fine winning its debut. Beat a couple from this field last week and isn't facing a monster tonight.
5-Perfect World (20-1)-Finished a decent 3rd in a race with a dominant winner. Marcus Miller steers for his father's barn, and should be a large price. This leg feels wide open and this is a chance to add some juice to the sequence if the morning line chalk disappoints.
7-Peacful Journey (7-1)-Raced evenly from the rail in its Red Mile debut. Loses Dexter Dunn as has switched out of the Ryder stable. Makes the 1st start for the Debeck barn, Andy Miller takes a seat, and he can get the job done. Comes back in sequence instead of 20 days and will look for better at a nice price.

$1.00 Early Pick 4

1,2/3,5,6/4,7/1,5,7
Total Bet=$36

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