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Frank Carulli: Saratoga Late Pick 4 Analysis | Friday, August 16, 2024

by Frank Carulli

August 15, 2024

Rain wiped out the Saratoga card last Friday, but the weather calls for partly sunny skies, temperatures in the low 60s and no precipitation this week. Big fields should persist in the 50-cent Late Pick 4 that shapes up this way:

SAR 8th race (4:59 p.m. EST) -- TAX IMPLICATIONS, entered in a similar spot on last week’s cancelled card, ‘ran to a clear lead and held well’ in deep stretch to win the Grade 3 Eatontown stakes at one mile. She posted a personal-best 94 Beyer and remains eligible for this 2X allowance condition. She is today’s solo play in the Pick 4 for leading trainer Chad Brown.

SAR 9th race (5:35 p.m. EST) -- LEELOO brushed the stall at the gate and it could have made the difference as she swung 3-wide for the stretch drive, negotiated some traffic and surged late to just miss catching the pace setter in the 6F Dancing Renee Stakes. She romped in an entry-level allowance for this barn the last time she ran at Saratoga two years ago and is the one to beat in the featured $125,000 Union Avenue for New York-bred fillies and mares. COUSIN KRISTI has speed, held second behind multiple stakes-winner Bluefield (10-25, $474k) in a long sprint, but can’t afford another bumpy start. SECURITY CODE, first or second in all four starts at Saratoga, will have to step it up a notch in her second start since March if she wants to eclipse $300k in 6F earnings.

SAR 10th race (6:09 p.m. EST) -- Six of the 10 entrants in the main body of this 1-1/16-mile turf allowance last won at different North America tracks. That doesn’t count morning-line favorite GOA, who won back-to-back route races on the synthetic track at Chantilly, France, but who is bred to handle the turf. DANCING DEAN is a must use on the ticket after she rallied for a maiden-breaking upset in her 3-year-old debut despite shying in twice in the stretch. She was fractious in the gate last out but ‘dragged her way closer’ and finished fourth, a neck behind Destiny Star, who came back to win a six-figure allowance here two days ago. WRIGLEYVILLE got the jump on DANCING DEAN and bid 4-wide to a brief stretch lead before tiring. She appears rounding to another good race at a better distance. MIXOLOGIST sustained a wide run and beat three next-out winners under ‘confident handling’ in her debut, only to tire as an allowance favorite at Saratoga in her second go-round.

SAR 11th race (6:42 p.m. EST) -- Throwing out the three longest shots in this $40,000 maiden grass route, but taking little to chance otherwise in the final leg of the Pick 4. Go 9-deep and use the also-eligibles if they draw in.

Suggested 50-Cent Ticket
SAR 8th Race: 1
SAR 9th Race: 2, 5, 7
SAR 10th Race: 1, 2, 4, 10
SAR 11th Race: 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 12
Cost: $54