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Al Cimaglia: The Red Mile Championship Series Pick 4 Analysis | Sunday, September 15, 2024

by Al Cimaglia

September 15, 2024

The Red Mile has a 10-race card loaded with two-and three-year-old stake races. The $1.00 Pick 4 has a $20,000 guaranteed pool with a very low 12% takeout. The entire sequence consists of Kentucky Championship Series races with $400,000 purses. It starts in Race 6, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6 (6:40 PM EST)

1-Secret Agent Man (5/2)-Can't seem to catch Karl, that has been the case in the last 3 races at Lex and has finished 2nd each time. Did get closer last time losing by a neck but not going to place much emphasis on that. The reason to use is the team Miller pupil has stayed flat in the last 3 starts, even after leaving from the rail last time. Seems to be getting better, has a post edge on Karl and the pool will be larger today so will use both logical choices in the opening leg.
7-Karl (7/5)-Simply put, this should be the winner, and many will single like a free square. Not much to say against that plan. But if a tough trip is going to be an issue it might happen when starting well outside of probably the biggest threat. Not expecting that to happen but will consider the possibility.

Race 7 (6:59 PM EST)

2-R Dutchess (5/2)-Raced well in last after shipping in from Mohawk. Went off as the chalk after an impressive finish in the Peaceful Way although getting a bumpy journey. Jody Jamieson should work a cozy trip this time and looks like a main threat.
3-Luna Lovegood (9/5)-Luna does just enough to win and doesn't look dominant. But don't be fooled, has a lot left when she crosses the wire, and her best is yet to come.
5-Torrisi (9/2)-The Takter pupil seems to leave you wanting more but this is a chance for a solid price in the sequence. Draws a choice post and Yannick Gingras should be stalking close to the leader.

Race 8 (7:18 PM EST)

5-Woman Of Passion (2-1)-The Carter Pinske entry is putting it all together in her sophomore season (10-7-1-1) and took her 1st picture at Lex on 9-2. That was the 2nd race since a sick scratch on 8-11 and my take is she is just starting to find her stride on the 1-mile oval. Will take a swing that is the correct assumption, and single while big money is on the line, and spread in the next leg.

Race 9 (7:37 PM EST)

1-Arson (9/2)-This colt does know how to win but hasn't taken a picture at Lex in 4 starts. Did win on the red clay 4 times last year but so far hasn't been a real threat to cross the line first. Maybe the PA bred is just better on a smaller oval. But could be overlooked tonight, and Scott Zeron should be racing near the top of the stack with this post draw.
2-Better Is Nice (7/2)-Won last week after making an early brush and took command. The rail horse stopped and that collapsed the field. Did hang on to win but was getting leg weary. That said, replay watchers may discount the win. If so, that is more of a reason to use in this spot. Best to not forget the Alagna pupil has hit the board in 9 of 10 at Lex with 6 pictures.
4-Nuclear (2-1)-Came rolling hard late and was jammed up with others that allowed Better Is Nice to get the jump. Should have a smoother trip. Has been a bridesmaid in the last 2 starts and may get revenge this time.
6-Woman Layer (5/2)-Closed in .26 flat to dead heat for 2nd with the one above. Also, experienced a bumpy ride, was shuffled, and that was a factor in snapping a 4-race win streak. This is a major player who will probably be bet down.

$1.00 Pick 4

1,7/2,3,5/5/1,2,4,6
Total Bet=$24

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