by Al Cimaglia
October 5, 2024
The Red Mile has a 15-race card with the $1.00 Early Pick 4 starting in Race 6. The sequence has a $7,500 guaranteed pool with a 12% takeout, and it will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 6 (2:40 PM EST)
6-Deja Blu (7/5)-This Takter 2-year-old will likely be the odds on choice in this event. Winner of 4 straight at Lex and has done it for the most part coming off cover and has left little doubt. Has only 2 losses in 6 races, the 1st start here on a "good" track and suffered an interference break at M1 after going off as an odds-on choice.
8-R Charm (5/2)-Many will single Deja Blu and she has an edge racing 5-times on the clay but the Toscano pupil is no slouch. Has hit the board in 5 of 8 races and rallied with a 26.3 last panel to win the $250,000 NJ Classic at M1 in its last start on 9-6. Could be a threat if takes to the oval and doesn't need the start.
Race 7 (3:00 PM EST)
4-Fallout (8/5)-Comes in with a 2-race win streak, the last picture coming in the $740,000 Metro at Wbsb. Rolled home with a .53 last half and Tim Tetrick had a gear in his pocket no one else had. Has hit the board in 2 of 4 at Lex but is still looking to post a win. Should be able to down this group with a smooth trip.
7-Ayeaye Captain Deo (8-1)-Has faced some tough foes up North and looks like a real gimmick possibility. Does have good gate speed and should be there at the wire if takes to the oval. If AMac lands a good early seat without burning much gas this colt could make things interesting.
Race 8 (3:20 PM EST)
5-R Duchess (4-1)-This is another Wbsb invader who has battled well at a top level. Comes off an even try at 7/5 and will look for a bounce back effort at what should be a square price.
6-Kendra (3-1)-The Walner 2-year-old has been consistently in the hunt and is in sharp form. This will be its Kentucky debut and JMac should have her engaged when the wings fold.
8-Luna Lovegood (4-1)-Luna picked a bad race to look flat as a pancake when a $400,000 purse was on the line. This is this is the time to catch her at a s solid price if you feel a bounce back effort is coming.
Race 9 (3:40 PM EST)
1-Myonlylove (6/5)-Tuned up with a nice qualifier on 9-30 after being idle since 9-3. Recent form has been dull but lands in a great spot to break its maiden. This looks like a drop and pop situation, but won't offer any value.
8-Caviart Adele (5-1)-Willing to take a swing with a Takter NY bred with Yannick Gingras between the pipes. Using under the assumption the price will be better than the morning line. Has been handled cautiously in the last 2 races and maybe the wrapper comes off now and could also spice up the gimmicks.
$1.00 Early Pick 4
6,8/4,7/5,6,8/1,8
Total Bet=$24
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