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Frank Carulli: Keeneland Pick 4 Analysis | Friday, October 11, 2024

by Frank Carulli

October 10, 2024

There’s more of where the one million in rewards points came from. For the second week in a row, 1st Bet is offering a Hit & Split promo covering the Late Pick 4 at Keeneland. Cash a winning ticket on the 50-cent wager this Friday, Oct. 11, and you will share in the rewards with other winning ticket holders. Here’s a look at the action:

KEE 7th race (4:12 p.m. EST) -- REINING FLOWERS overcame a slow pace to break her maiden going a route of ground, the made a last-to-third move and ‘finished with good courage’ in the P.G. Johnson Stakes, a performance that was upgraded when the top two finishers returned with Grade 2 placings next out. She draws post 10 but gets a much livelier pace to rally into. SWEET TREASURE, the only wire-to-wire winner from four turf races at Horseshoe Indianapolis in her debut, stretches out in distance for the 29-percent ‘repeat’ barn of trainer Brad Cox. Her sire, Twirling Candy, won the Grade 2 Del Mar Derby at 1-1/8 miles.

KEE 8th race (4:44 p.m. EST) -- Nine first-time starters – almost all showing flashy workouts – are entered in the main body of this MSW sprint. PATCH ADAMS turned heads with a :59.1 gate work and strong gallop out at Churchill Downs. His sire, Into Mischief, is the 7th-leading sire in 2yo progeny earnings this year and his dam, Well Humored, was an 11-length first-out winner and capped a 3-for-4 start to her career with a minor stakes win. T KRAFT opened a 3-length lead at 6-1/2F at Saratoga in his second start, only to get caught by Chancer McPatrick, who followed his debut victory with a pair of Grade 1 wins in the Hopeful and Champagne, respectively.

KEE 9th race (5:16 p.m. EST) -- Going 7-deep in the featured $300,000 Sycamore Stakes at 1-1/2 miles on the grass. VERSTAPPEN won a Grade 2 turf marathon and finished in the money in two others during a $464k season last year as a 4-year-old. He bid but flattened out in his seasonal debut, finishing behind two next-out graded stakes winners who posted 101 and 99 Beyers, respectively. OMAHA HONOR earned a triple-digit Beyer and finished a willing third behind two Charles Appleby-trained millionaires in the Grade 1 Manhattan at Saratoga. Speaking of Appleby, he sends out BOLD ACT, a $540k earner at the distance with a 14/5-2-4 record. TAWNY PORT lost in three blanket finishes, but placed in the money if his last five graded stakes on firm footing, all at 1-1/2 miles or longer. DATAMAN’s late kick produced two stakes wins to start his year and four consecutive 93-plus Beyers going a route of ground, but he can ill-afford another troubled start in a crowded field. BIG BLUE LINE makes the ticket at 30-1. He had two wire-to-wire wins as a 3-year-old, a stakes-placed showing from four runner-up rallies as a 4-year-old and a win after an $80,000 claim two starts back as a 5-year-old. He can be excused as a non-factor in a slow-paced Grade 2 stakes last out after a cross-country trip to Santa Anita. SUGOI has speed, a Grade 3 win at the distance, double-digit morning-line odds -- and he doesn’t shy from the photo-finish camera.

KEE 10th race (5:48 p.m. EST) -- Speed types dominated on the main track during the opening week of the fall meet. If the trend continues in this maiden claiming race, it bodes well for MSW droppers CRUISE MISSILE and QUIET CONFIDENCE in their first start at 7F. ENDLESS GLOW drew more betting attention than she warranted with first-time blinkers. She raced far back early at 6F, angled 6-wide in mid-stretch and ran fourth behind two MSW droppers.

Suggested 50-Cent Ticket

KEE 7th Race: 3, 10
KEE 8th Race: 2, 4
KEE 9th Race: 1, 4, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11
KEE 10th Race: 1, 9, 10

Cost: $42