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Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis | Sunday, October 20, 2024

by Al Cimaglia

October 20, 2024

Northfield Park has a 15-race card with the $1.00 Late Pick 4 starting in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool, with a low 12% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11 (9:40 PM EST)

4-West Malibu (9/5)-The short price isn't to my liking but should be in the hunt. But the best chance to win is by getting on the point and could get the top off the gate. Using despite the small price with the post edge on other players.
6-Check Point Six (3-1)-Ronnie Wrenn gets the call and this mare can take a picture with a cozy trip. Should be forwardly placed off the gate and could take control early on.
9-Bella Rain (3-1)-Aaron Merriman is between the pipes, otherwise this would be a riskier play. Leads the field in wins for this year but needs to get a good seat starting from the 2nd tier. Will rely on this pilot's ability to muscle into a close-up seat early on.

Race 12 (10:02 PM EST)

1-Killer Instinct (5/2)-Comes off a win at the Meadows. Fits well hitting the board here in 19 of 30 starts with 6 pictures. Should be no worse than 2nd off the gate and that is the preferred trip for the 6-year-old.
3-Don't Take My Keys (9/2)-Dexter Dunn tried to go gate to wire last time and just missed. Ryan Stahl gets the nod here and the price will be better. Could score and offer some value.
6-Highland Mowgli (2-1)-This Burke veteran has been in sharp form for over the last 5 races. Wrenn can work another efficient trip like last time. This is a true double-up possibility and it's best to respect.

Race 13 (10:24 PM EST)

2-Always Andrew (2-1)-Bumped up to this level after a win, got stuck with post 9, and raced evenly. Will swallow the short price, this is a soft spot and should be a main player with this post draw.
5-Lyons Lou (5-1)-This Meadows shipper left, got on the point, and went to the half in 55.1 and that trip didn't work. Should be better in the 2nd start at Nfld and might be overlooked at the windows.

Race 14 (10:46 PM EST)

1-Bluebird Revival (7/2)-Hasn't won at this level and needs the right trip. Drawing the rail and Merriman getting the assignment should matter. This affair looks like it will come down to the two program chalks.
4-Cornstar (2-1)-The last 2 starts came on a sloppy track, is 0-5 on a wet surface and may have met a beatable field. Should relish the company and goes without hopples tonight. Does good work at Nfld (18-5-6-2) and could post an overdue win with a decent trip.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

4,6,9/1,3,6/2,5/1,4
Total Bet=$36

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